5 days of consolidation and counting. Low volume-seems like August Heat is more like August Simmer. S&P 500 (SPY) Inside day. Over 140.92 it's 2012 highs or bust. Remain cautious under 140.Subs: Pivots positive
Russell 2000 (IWM) Landed on the fast moving average. Had a slight distribution in volume. 80.00 still pivotal and over 80.60 next stop 81.84 or higher Subs: 2 days under pivots
Dow (DIA) 131.90 should clear with some oomph once and for all. Otherwise, 130.74 is the fast moving average support to watchSubs: Pivots negative
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Took a leadership role on light volume. Still overbought. 65.95 good support to watch
ETFs:
GLD Pooped out and broke 156.20 support. Monthly chart shows last 3 months have been inside the range from the month preceding, starting in May. Talk about compression.
XLF (Financials) Like to see this clear 15.06. Support now 14.81
IBB (BiotechnologySubs: 133.10 is R1 to cross.
SMH (Semiconductors) Subs: Bought February 2013 34 calls for 1.80. Will make next trade long before the expiration-a rollout most likely
XRT (Retail) Subs: 3 days under pivots. Has to clear 60.34
IYT (Transportation) 91.17 still key to cross
IYR (Real Estate) Under 64.00 and a lot of enthusiasm in this group will fade. Back over 66.21, party on! DOJI day today
USO (US Oil Fund) 35.35 has to clear for another leg up.
OIH (Oil Services) Consolidating like so many others
XLE (Energy) 72.46 last 2-Days high
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Holding its gap higher from 08/07.
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly.
Category 1: (Aloha) Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
LNKD 103.80 max risk. Like to see 105.72 clear
RHT 55.90 the 10 DMA max risk. 56.42 the FTP to clear, then today's high
CF 2* Inside days. 10 DMA at 203.33 good risk should today' s range clear
WFM Today's low max risk. 93.64 the pivots to hold and over R1 94.59 looks good
Category 2: (Pipeline) Positive Phase, Condition 2-3, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
PPG Condition 3 so would only risk 109.80 and see if 111.04 R1 can clear
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
LMT 90.72 good risk. Could see up to 2012 high and beyond.
MMM Overbought but just cleared a lot of congestion. Provided 91.50 holds.
AAPL Would look for a reversal rather than chase from here-note the gap higher and 5 minute opening range trade
SYK 52.80 risk. Over today's high should get good follow through
PCYC Over 58.00 should continue provided 55.70 holds
YUM Really like to see 67.10 clear-the gap low from 08/07. 66.40 good risk
ROST Today's low max risk and should clear 68.00
Category 4: (Rip Tide) Oversold (2 or more days under FTP), Condition 4, Needs to clear R1, Risk previous day low unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
AMZN 230.50 is a closer risk after now 4 days under pivots.
ONXX DOJI. 69.15 swing risk, closer, today low and above 71.89 next hurdle the 10 DMA
Phase Change: EQT Golden cross and 2 days under pivots. 55.25 support and over pivots and R1 looks good IBM Held the fast moving average, positive pivots. 197.80 max risk. JPM In consolidation at the 200 DMA. Positive Pivots. 36.45 max risk CTXS 75.50 support. Positive Pivots GS 102 max risk and want to see it clear the 200 DMA. Positive Pivots
Shorts: Shorts have been more daytrades than anything else
Category 5:Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
INFY Cannot clear 41.84 and resting on the 10 DMA 40.70 would be cautious short
SGY 24.57 to today's high good risk. Inside day so also watch for today's low to break
WLP R1 to today's high good resistance. 10 DMA comes in at 55.50 now support
Bye for now!