The market begins looking like it will challenge 2012 highs, and winds up closing basically unchanged. From a technical standpoint, this indicates continued consolidation on low volume. Although traders await a nasty correction, that does not appear to be a given. The best technical read I see is that the Financial Sector ETF (XLF) could not clear recent high 15.06, which is not a heavily weighted long term resistance area, more of a short term point to clear. In other words, the bears could come out, but the bulls remain in charge. S&P 500 (SPY) 139.70 is the fast moving average support. Volume light, but does register as an accumulation day in a bull phase. Subs: Pivots positive
Russell 2000 (IWM) 79.09 the fast moving average to hold. Super light volume. Subs:Positive Pivots
Dow (DIA) 131.90 did not clear with any oomph at all. Now, 130.93 is the fast moving average support to watchSubs: Pivots Positive
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) RSIs overbought which means a correction would be a relief. 65.31 was the area that once broke, took it to this leg up. Now support area
ETFs:
GLD Now, under the 50 DMA after looking like it would blast off. 148-158 is a big range, but a range nonetheless
XLF (Financials) Since could not clear 15.06, now let's see what happens at 14.84
IBB (Biotechnology) This did what it had to do. Subs: 132.66 now support
SMH (Semiconductors) Subs: Held Monday low-my calls are for a long term trade. For now, unless 32.50 breaks, see this dip as a buy opportunity
XRT (Retail) 59.70 now fast moving average support
IYT (Transportation) 91.16 still key to cross with a close above
IYR (Real Estate) Under 64.00 and a lot of enthusiasm in this group will fade. Back over 66.21, party on! DOJI day today
USO (US Oil Fund) 35.35 has to clear for another leg up.
OIH (Oil Services) Consolidating like so many others. 39.60 the 200 DMA to hold
XLE (Energy) Sideways and still consolidating
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Big move all done with the gap higher
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly.
Picks-HSY HMSY DRI PM TWC DTVAAPL are just 7 recent examples of when they appeared on the list, they all setup next day for a swing. Please ask if unsure how to use risk/targets for swing trades.
Category 1: (Aloha) Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
CF 10 DMA at 204.56 good risk with today's high a point like to see clear
EQIX Improved to condition 1. 179.16 Monday low max risk. Like to first see 181 clear
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
WFM 93.29 good risk. Otherwise looking at the 50 DMA at 92.80
AMZN Improved to Condition 2. 232.62 today's low is a tight risk and would like to see today's high clear
ASML Improved to Condition 3. Today's low tight risk with59.20 recent swing high to clear
COG Improved to condition3. Today's low max risk. Inside day so also needs to clear today's high
LMT Today's low good risk. Now, prefer a reversal against that risk point
MMM 91.60 good risk, 92.04 closer as this works a slow grind higher. Inside day
ONXX Improved to condition3. 71.75 a close risk.
Category 4: (Rip Tide) Oversold (2 or more days under FTP), Condition 4, Needs to clear R1, Risk previous day low unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
COF Oversold and close to the 54.50 risk the 50 DMA. Has to clear the pivots 55.43 first.
Phase Change: IBM Under 197.55 would stand aside, but if can clear today's high, then still has a chance at higher levels. JPMoutperformed and holding the 200 DMA at 36.91.OAS 29.14 the 200 DMA to hold. Positive pivots and outperformed today HCA Back to unconfirmed bull phase provided 27.19 holds. Then through 27.80 looks good PNC Back to unconfirmed bullish phase. 60.17 good risk CI In recovery phase now 3 inside days. 43.52 good risk and through today's high looking at the 200 DMA
Shorts:
Category 5:Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
DECK 45.47 good risk point. Has support at 43.45 the 10 DMA below
FAZ-Financial ultrashort-has a possible slingshot pattern. It has to clear 21.45 the 10 DMA to confirm-
MCD Inside day so have to wait for this to break today's low. 86.00 support
NKE 94.37 breaks S1. Then, risk is the pivots 95.30
SGY 24.72 good risk. 23.89 S1 to break
Bye for now!