SPY On the 3 scenarios covered in Sunday's blog-this one worked-" If it comes in higher Monday, would be inclined to follow it to the upside in anticipation of more upside." And so it did, except on very light volume. It also closed above the weekly high from the "downgrade" week, but that is fairly meaningless unless there is a weekly close above that level. Subs-notice the beautiful Opening Range reversal against R1 on the gap higher. Now, provided it holds 119.00 could see more upside to 124.00. However, under 119, especially on a closing basis and we should see a retest to the 200 weekly moving average 155.55. The phase is Bearish.
DIA Still in its Distribution Phase. Now, as long as 113.15 area holds could see 118.00. Otherwise, back to test 108.
QQQ Close to the daily moving averages at 55-56 level now significant resistance. Under 53.50, see a retest of 52.50.
IWM Under S1 70.83 would look vulnerable. But provided it holds 71.00 area, could see move to 77.75.
ETFs:
GLD**When an instrument is in a Condition 1, as this is, you can use a move over the FTP to buy ½ a position and add over R1 if it had been trading under S1 prior. Such was the case with GLD. Now resistance at 173.15 so would wait now for a new dip.
SLV if gaps higher will follow it. What I wrote Sunday and so we followed it today buying an opening range reversal. 36.29 now key support. Resistance at 41.19.
IBB Led today as expected. Now to stay strong must stay above 92.55.
SMH** Not quite an inside day. Has to clear 30.00 to stay strong. Otherwise, back under 29.67 S1, will look vulnerable.
IYT Last week, this broke from a wedge and continued with follow through to the upside. Through 84.60 can continue to 88 area. But, under 83.44 also starts to look vulnerable. All major sector and groups has worked off its oversold condition and still have negative daily charts.
XLF Inside day. Above today's high and 13.22 would be compelling. However, under 13.00 would be careful on the long side and under today's low would look at the ultrashorts.
XRT Inside day. Similar to XLF, looks good over today's high.
FCG Gave the buy on this last Thursday at 18.55. Now, close to the 20.25 resistance level.
TLT**Second Inside day and barely holding the fast moving average. A break of today's low and will be looking for a new entry in TBT.
Longs: Another great day for the OR reversal on those with positive pivots and that held the 1 day pivot low. One breakout we followed was SLW. AAP was also a buy on a breakout. The rest were all bought on the reversal trade. 1/3 ATR if lines up under a key moving average or 1 day pivot low, is the proper risk for a daytrade.
CBS** Had an early OR reversal which I missed. Closed with a DOJI day with 25.00 now pivotal. Above 25.09 looks like a move to 26.90 or beyond. Also still a candidate for OR reversal since pivots positive. 29.68 is the recent multiyear high. Day to mini
NFLX Had a rough day until the end. But since it broke S2, now needs to clear R1 at 249.97 to be anything more than a daytrade. Pivots negative so would like to see it hold 243.00. Day to mini
HANS* Provided this holds the negatively stacked pivots at 80.75 level, great looking daily chart not too far from the 52-week high. Must clear 82.00 to stay strong. Day to mini
SLG**Two inside days in a row and right up against the 200 DMA at 75.07. Pivots at 74.05 level and positive. S1 the risk is 73.12. Over the 200 DMA next resistance the 160 EMA at 77.20 then the 70 EMA at 80.20. Day to mini Note AVB-better chart also inside day
JAZZ** Inside day. Positive pivots at 40.66 area to hold with today's low key support. Has overhead resistance at 42.20 but above that could see 43.60 recent and all time high Day to mini
YOKU 25.58 support to hold and with negative pivots, must clear 26.50. Inside day today. Over today's high, could see a quick pop to 32.00 Daytrade mainly
ED**Bullish engulfing pattern and inside day. Over 54.87 clears all time highs. Look for a quick $3.00 move at least Tight risk to S1 53.93. Day to mini
Note: Timing is everything. VHC which closed poorly last Friday, today, took out R1 and went running. Now watch for OR reversal provided it holds 20.15. Day to mini
Shorts:
GOOG Negative pivots-might have a tight risk if opens under 556.21 to the last hour high 558.48. Then, would stick with short to see if it can get back down to the 50 DMA at 545.41. Day to mini
GMCR with negative pivots and a downward sloping 10 DMA, if breaks S1 at 100.75 could see a move down to 95.00 and then 90.60. Day to mini
SKF**3 days under the FTP and an inside day. Over 74.29 begins to firm and over 75.37 clears R1 for an inverse buy to short financials. Day to mini
FAZ**3 days under the FTP at 56.68. R1 must clear at 57.87for an inverse buy. Also an inside day. Day to mini.
Goodnight!