SPY Held the fast moving average at 118.42 and still a bit away from the adaptive MA at 117.92. We had the one day of accumulation in volume on August 9th when it made a peak low and closed strong. After that day, although it had follow through to the upside, it never had one more day of accumulation in volume. In fact, there have been 5 Distribution Days in volume in the last 2 weeks and today the 6th occurred. With pivots negative and price action under S1, now must clear R1 120.74 to reverse the downtrend. If it cannot clear the FTP at 119.52, then could short against that-but if gaps higher, the wait to see what happens at R1.
DIA Better chance to show signs of more rally since not in a bearish phase. Holding the fast moving average at 112.73. Plus, did not have a Distribution Day in volume like SPY did. Above 115, could be good sign of strength. Otherwise, under today's low, next support 111.25
QQQ Similar volume pattern to SPY. But, held S1 so intraday stronger chart. Weekly chart better than the other indexes as well. Above 54.43 R1, would follow it up. But, under today's low, with volume patterns negative, expect weakness to 52.30 area support.
IWM Broke 70.83 but with the choppy action, never got much follow through to the downside even though it closed weak with same negative volume patterns as the others. 71.34 reverses the pattern, under 69.60, looking at the 200 DMA next support.
ETFs:
GLD Recommended reentering long over 170.75. Now, the recent high 175.13 could provide resistance, but overall, GLD strong uptrend intact.
SLV 38.18 now key support on the fast moving average. Lagging behind GLD with resistance now 39.40 area to get through
IBB Still one to follow for the lead. Held S1, positive pivots, a buy if holds 93.00 level. Can ultimately test 98.00 the 200 DMA level. IYR also positive pivots.
XLY** Also positive pivots with a doji day. 36.40 big pivotal area and over the FTP.
SMH 29.40 is the close of 2 weeks ago pre downgrade. Very choppy action in this ETF and now, with 29.40 pivotal, over 29.92 reverses trend to up and under 29.40 see 28.60 level next support.
IYT "Under 83.44 also starts to look vulnerable." From last night. But, now, the weekly is back to oversold. Over today's high could see a relief rally.
XLF The ultrashort SKF turned out to be a good trade if bought on the pivot. Otherwise, super choppy. Again, over today's high compelling, otherwise, back to recent lows.
XRT Similar to XLF, looks good over today's high.
TLT Beautiful reversal after the Second Inside day. We know interest rates cannot go to zero, but at this point, the trend is too strong to fight.
Longs: The OR reversal gave us some great daytrades with ED CBS AAP MA and others. Today's video goes into detail about some of the nuances we have discovered on deciding which OR reversals to take or not. 1/3 ATR if lines up under a key moving average or 1 day pivot low, is the proper risk for a daytrade.
CBS** Had 2 OR reversals on this choppy day. Now, with negative pivots, in order to get going must clear R1 25.13. Then can see move to 26.40 area and perhaps beyond if market can firm. 29.68 is the recent multiyear high.Day to mini
HANS* After a first attempt at an OR reversal, later on it stayed weak. But, it held prior day low 79.68 now a line in the sand. 2 days under the FTP with a good chart, but not a classic Nugget since 10 DMA still under the 50 DMA. The FTP is 80.32 which can look at a starter position, but must clear R1 80.80 and today's high 81.12 to really get going. Not too far from the 52-week high. Day to mini
ED**Bullish engulfing pattern and second inside day. Bought the OR reversal but exited at the end of day since been maintaining a daytrading mode. Over 54.76 is a buy-or over R1 and over 54.87 clears all time highs. Look for a quick $3.00 move at least. Day to mini
SUG**Takeover rumors. Bullish engulfing pattern and above fast moving average at 41.10. Pivots positive at 41.51. Had an ugly candle 2 days ago so now must clear R1 41.80. Recent high 44.65 Day to mini
KCI* Huge move midday then settled down to close strong. Now, 67.44 is the FTP and support to hold. Would certainly watch for an OR reversal. 68.75 all time high and the weekly resistance comes in at 70.00 Day to mini
VFC** Over the fast moving average at 109.82. Negative pivots so must hold 112.11. Inside day so over today's high matches R1 112.99. Then can go to 120if market stays firm. Day to swing
QCOR** if holds the fast moving average at 30.41 and S1 at 30.47 get a tight risk for a long in anticipation of the formation on the daily turning out to be an inverted head and shoulders. Recent high 32.78 to clear. Day to swing
DLTR another one to watch for OR reversal if gets close to the FTP 68.88. All time high 70.54. Day to mini
AAPL must clear R1 383.83 with risk the FTP area 379.90. Still positive chart. Day to mini GMCR same R1 101.90
Shorts: Lots with negative pivots and not oversold.
BIDU only short on OR high failure. Oversold but could have more downside. Need to sell strength to control risk.GOOG-on my short list before it was downgraded-also one to watch now for selling strength.Day to mini
MOS* Under the 50 DMA so would not short if clears 66.56. But with negative pivots, under 65.50, with an inside day, also under today's low at 64.80, could see a drop to 62.00 Day to mini
XOM**Negative pivots and under the 200 weekly MA. 75.06 is the overhead resistance. I would not be short above that level. Pivots at 73.57 as first area to sell against. Under today's low corresponds with S1 at 72.79, perfect for follow through to downside considering the inside day. Support at 70 level. Day to mini
Goodnight!