SPY Yes an Accumulation day in volume and an impressive bounce after the Bernanke speech. But, could not take out last Thursdays' high and closed slightly above the adaptive moving average and below 120.08, the barometer closing price the week the US was downgraded. The FTP is stacked negative for Monday and after it failed to get through R1, suggests that the market is still vulnerable and in a trading range (albeit wide) between 112 and 120. And what happens if the trading range breaks to the upside? Major resistance at 125.50 and then 127. What happens if the trading range breaks to the downside? No major support until 101.00. Subs-pivots at 116.77. If that area fails a compelling short. SDS area to penetrate to upside, 25.20 with risk to 24.80. If market (SPY) gaps higher, still must clear R1 at 119.70.
DIA Similar scenario. Negative pivots at 111.59 as a sell point if comes in lower, yet still with the possibility of more upside only if gets through R1 114.10. Also an accumulation day in volume, but still under the average daily number.
QQQ Finally filled that gap and stopped exactly at the adaptive moving average 53.26 with Friday's high 53.31. Discouraging as well is that it could not muster an Accumulation day in volume. There is a bullish engulfing pattern and positive pivots, which suggest that in order for this rally to sustain the leaders (AAPL ALXN DLTR HANS) have to continue to do just that, lead. If QQQ gaps higher it will be compelling to follow that to its next resistance at 55.00. But, if it comes in lower and takes out 52.30 area, S1 is at 51.73 with Friday's low 51.15. There is an up channel that breaks down under 51.65 level, right under S1. Then next stop 45.00
IWM over 70.25 is encouraging. Otherwise, 68.16 is the negatively stacked FTP level to hold or looks vulnerable as well.
ETFs:
GLD Bought at 175.00. Expect it to hold 175.60 area to stay firm and under 173.65 begins to look more vulnerable (although still very much in a bullish phase) Through 178.30, next target 182.40.
SLV 389.50 now support to hold and must clear 40.86 to continue the move up.
USO With Libya in the news, the oil market did not perform as well as the market did last week. At this point, will enter if rallies and closes above 33.54. Otherwise, negative trend still intact.
SMH Holding the 200 weekly moving average. Established trading range in the last 2 weeks of 28.75 high to 27.29 low. Over the high of the range will see what happens at 30.00 resistance. Under the low of the range, next stop 25.00.
IBB One of the most promising sectors. Bullish engulfing pattern, neutral pivots at 90.85 area. Possible could rally to 98.00 if market stays strong.
XRT Another of the stronger sectors, in a range between 48.00 and 44.00.
XLF Another important element to next major direction. Over 13.35 could see a big move to 15.50 area. But, under 12.00, last year's low was 6.00.
TLT New long Friday at 108.40. Trend still strong. S1 at 107.40. Watching TBT, over 25.43 would exit TLT long and reverse.
Note to Subs: I apologize for leaving suddenly on Friday midday. I had been trying to schedule a doctor's appointment for quite some time and the office called with a last minute cancellation which I grabbed. Before I left, I had signaled the OR reversals in CF and BIDU, gave you a head's up in AAPL and ISRGplus tweeted the buy in GLD. I also pointed out that SPY DIA and IWM were at R1 resistance so lightening up on longs and raising stops was prudent. Hopefully, my late day absence was not inconvenient for you.
Mish's Vacation: I will be with you Monday and Tuesday. There will be an Evening Watch for Wednesday, the 31st. As of the 31st, Geoff Bysshe, President of MarketGauge, will grant all of you access to the Daytrading with Hotscans room. This service is different but of equal value to MMMPrem. Rather than a daily midday video, charts are streamed live throughout the day and there is a chat room where Geoff/Keith will post trades and answer questions. Instead of an Evening Watch, each morning Geoff posts a focus list with commentary about the overall market sentiment and which longs/shorts he is watching. The chat room can be set with a pleasant audible alert just like twitter, which eliminates the need to watch the chat all day long. I imagine that mid to end of next week will not be the optimal time to put on any new swing positions. After Labor Day, Geoff will alert you to trades that he recommends for anything longer than a daytrade. I will return Monday, September 12th.
Longs: We lightened all long positions Friday and bought GLD TLT. Only picks are ones in aCondition 1 with short term trading patterns. The ones that made huge moves like AAPL would watch only for OR reversal buys.
MA Is in a condition 1, but closed down on the day. Plus, the pivots are negative. Because the overall chart still looks strong, provided it holds 316.40, could see a test of R1 330.27. Over that level, could run to 338.50 with all time high 340.42. Day to mini.
ABV Also underperformed the market. Condition 1 with 3 days under the FTP. If holds 33.05 level, over 33.56 breaks R1 and could see run to 34.13, all time high. If that clears, would expect a move to 42.00Day to swing
HANS yet another underperformer Condition 1 with 2 days under the FTP. 83.77 the FTP to hold. R1 at 86.23 which if crossed could see test of recent highs and possibly beyond. Projected move to 94.00 Day to mini
KO would have had 2 days under the FTP but closed just above. Provided it holds 67.90 level, over R1 69.28 has all time high 69.82. Above that could see 76.00. Day to swing
ED 2 days under the FTP at 55.40. Support to hold 54.72, Friday's low. R1 is 56.09. Could see move to 58.00 day to mini.
TJX 2 days under the FTP at 54.02. Through R1 55.60 could see move to recent high 56.78 and if market strong projected move 63.00 Day to mini
NOTE: SINA Last 5 trading days has been in a range of an ATR. We will be looking at the strike prices of puts/calls to determine the viability of either a straddle or strangle options trade. When the range breaks either way, move should be significant. Will tweet findings.
Hon Mention: CF (closed slightly below all time high, could see 190) CVI (projected mover to 28.05)DLTR (projected move 72.15) BIDU (Gap to 142.70) IBM (Resistance 172.60)) JAZZ (a hold of 37.00 and over 38.07 see 41.60) AMZN (could see 204.35)RIMM (if holds 28.90 level and crosses 30.00 could see 31.65)WYNN (over 141.45 could see 147)
Shorts:
URBN Negative pivots at 24.60. Inside day. Under 24.00 could see move to 20. Day to swing
C Inside day and negative pivots at 29.71. Provided it doesn't cross 30.33 R1, if looks weak, would short against the pivots and if fails 28.50 recent low 25.40. Under that could 20.00 Day to swing
ADM Negative pivots 27.65. As long as it doesn't cross 28.30, could see 26.00 recent low with better support at 24.30 area. Day to swing
FXI Negative pivots 36.54. As long as it doesn't cross 37.40, recent low 35.02 and could see 33.20 since not oversold. Day to swing
APA Still under the 200 weekly moving average at 100.94. Negative pivots at 99.06. Would short weakness. If breaks 95.00 area could see drop to 90.00 and if market weakens further 85.00 Day to swing
Hon Mention: MET (under 31.27) VECO (under 34.97 support 32.60 then 27.00)GS (under 110.65)WFC (similar to C) PNC ( if fails 47.20, breaks 46.45 see 42.70)
Have a great Sunday! East Coasters-Hopefully Irene will be tame.
