SPY Nice orderly rally today. Gapped higher, held R1 and took off on an opening range breakout. Volume super light-a concern for the rally sustainability in the long run, but for now, looks like resistance at 125.50 and then 127. A break beneath 120 would make this rally more suspect. But the real test is if the gap from today's higher open stays intact.
DIA Back last March when the market broke, the low of that move was 115.51. The high from the rally a few weeks ago was 115.46. That is now a key area to break in order to see a test of the overhead moving averages at 118.50. As with SPY, the gap up today should hold if this rally is to continue with such low volume.
QQQ Wrote on Sunday, "If QQQ gaps higher it will be compelling to follow that to its next resistance at 55.00." Today's high was 54.67. Now, 54.00 is a decent pivotal are to watch for a hold or failure. And again, the gap up today should hold for the rally to sustain.
IWM Gapped open above the 70.25 level. The weakest index had the highest percentage gain. Will watch for 71.60 the FTP to hold. Moving average resistance at 76.45. A break of 70.79 S1, will look for today's low to hold.
ETFs:
GLD Exited on the break of the 5 minute opening range and the FTP. I would not lose track of GLD however, since today was an inside day. Can follow the range break up or down. Down next support at last week's low. Up and has to clear 176.40 to stay long.
SLV Inside day. 40.20 now some resistance and support at 38.06.
USO DOJI day with 33.96 now pivots. If holds could see 34.65 next. A break and expect another test of 33.30.
SMH Broke the range with 30.00 next resistance. 28.75 level now the support to hold.
IBB After the Bullish engulfing pattern, looks like it is on its way to rally to 98.00 if market stays strong. 93.60 now support to hold.
XRT Broke the range over 48.00. Next resistance at the 200 DMA at 49.90. 48.00 now support to hold.
XLF High today 13.32. Last week's high 13.33. Through there could see a big move to 15.50 area. 13.00 now the support to hold.
TLT Still holding last week's low at 106.15. Over today's high would look for a long entry with risk to today's low. 108.50 now overhead resistance. Under today's low, look for a test of 106.15.
Mish's Vacation: I will be with you tomorrow. There will be an Evening Watch for Wednesday, the 31st. As of the 31st, Geoff Bysshe, President of MarketGauge, will grant all of you access to the Daytrading with Hotscans room. This service is different but of equal value to MMMPrem. Rather than a daily midday video, charts are streamed live throughout the day and there is a chat room where Geoff/Keith will post trades and answer questions. Instead of an Evening Watch, each morning Geoff posts a focus list with commentary about the overall market sentiment and which longs/shorts he is watching. The chat room can be set with a pleasant audible alert just like twitter, which eliminates the need to watch the chat all day long. I imagine that mid to end of this week will not be the optimal time to put on any new swing positions. After Labor Day, Geoff will alert you to trades that he recommends for anything longer than a daytrade. I will return Monday, September 12th.
Longs: Swing trades have great profits in longs from last week. Miniswing traders have been lightening on these rallies leaving a tail on with trailing stops. Buying extended stocks leaves you with uncontrollable risk and overnight exposure. For now, look for OR reversals on the stronger stocks and keep new positions in Non Nuggets day to miniswing trades.
MA Tested the FTP and bounced at the end of the day after never having much follow through on the OR reversal. The 10 DMA is sloping down which is interesting to note especially after closing down on the day last Friday. The stack on the pivots are positive coming in at 327.64. If looking at weakness, has to hold 321.35. Ideally though, should open over the FTP with a low risk to 327, especially for a daytrade. Could run to 339.50 with all time high 340.42. Day to mini.
SINA Priced the options which did not offer any advantage. Today it closed down on the day and still within its trading range. Will look at the options again. Now would like to see it hold 96.05 S1 and cross 98.51, the FTP to stay firm. A rally and close above 100.50 will be positive and good for a run to 103. Over the course of time, the options play if can price it, will bank on this trading either way above or below its current levels over the next couple of months.
GDX Positive pivots at 61.97. Held the 10 DMA at 61.27. If crosses the FTP with an OR break, to control risk can use the last hour low 61.70. Through today's high could see 64.50 and beyond. Day to swing
GMCR Filled the gap from Friday's close with today' low. S1, 97.11 should now hold. Above the positively stacked pivots at 99.43 could see continued move up to R1 101.11 and through that, 108 target. Day to mini
MCP Similar to SINA in that in a range that breaks out over 55.00 with support that must hold at 52.86. Above 55 could see move to 60.00. Day to mini
Hon Mention: NFLX (the 200 DMA is at 226.79) CMG (Look for OR reversal against 304.40 next resistance 311.30) POT (look for OR reversal and today's gap to hold. Target 61.50)
Some targets: CF 190 CVI 29.10 IBM 174 JAZZ 41.60 AMZN 208 RIMM 31.65 WYNN over 147 could see150.40 IBM over today's high 174.00
Shorts: Watch GLD SLV and TLT if fails levels noted above
VRTX 43.55 is the 50 weekly moving average. Although it is approaching oversold on the daily RSI, it has room on the weekly one. Inside day which means under today's low can short with risk to the negatively stacked FTP at 44.31 Day to mini
CEF* Seems to be following the SLV. Over R1 24.85 also clears the 10 DMA therefore would not short. But, has an island top from August 22nd which means if fails today's low after an inside day today, could see a drop to 23.10, the 50 DMA. Day to swing.
C Overbought on daily RSI and not above the resistance at last week's high 31.58. Pivots are positive so must break the FTP at 30.96 and then S1 at 30.63 to confirm a short. Day to swing
Hon Mention: MET (under 32.45) GS (under 113.33)
Goodnight!