Dow closes at 12,977 after everyone celebrated 13,000 last week.FED said nothing new, but why should they do anything now? Furthermore, there is nothing new about the incredible divergence we see. Been singing that tune for months! So, what's changed? Still in a bull phase in everything except the Russell 2000 which has been underperforming all along. Concern? Yes, of course. Takes 2 days to confirm a phase change which means a second close under the 200 DMA will do it. Back above, and the rest of the market should run up and fast!
S&P 500 (SPY) After 2 days of accumulation in volume, we now have 2 days of distribution. 136.60 the fast moving average support. Subs: That nagging possible slingshot top still there. Pivots negative so must clear R1, 138.45. Today's video talks about that slingshot.
Russell 2000 (IWM) 77.60 either resistance or if clears, a reason to buy against Wednesday's low.
Dow (DIA) 127.95 is the gap low to hold now. Back through 130.50 would be encouraging
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Let's see what happens at 64.00 before we throw in the towel
ETFs:
GLD 155 tested ending with a DOJI day after gnarly gap down. Subs: A gap over today's high would be amazing. Otherwise, looking to see if 154.50 holds
XLF (Financials) 14.50 important again.
SMH (Semiconductors) Subs: Has yet to confirm a phase change to accumulation. Until it does, assume 32.40 now resistance
XRT (Retail) Subs: Remember the slingshot pattern from April 30th. Since then this has made lower highs on each swing up. This definitely concerns me
IYT (Transportation) Subs: Makes the tight stop we used to see if it could hold the 200 DMA yesterday with the small loss look so much better-all about controlling losses when you take those chances.
IYR (Real Estate) Now it has to clear 66.21 or 63.70 level should come up fairly quickly
USO (US Oil Fund) Subs: Inside day and positive pivots-also island top-like to see where this group goes.
OIH (Oil Services) This looks interesting after it is back above the 200 DMA. Perhaps the next rotation will be in the oil and energy sectors.
XLE (Energy) I am watching this sector as well.Subs: Today's low important as well as R1 70.50
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Subs:14.50 support to hold.
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Short term trading patterns in good stocks are main focus now
Post Earnings: FSLR Love to see a gap and hold above 16.42 CNQR: Gap above 69.90 to watch for
Category 1: (Aloha) Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
AMZN Since this did not meet the slingshot criteria, now, if holds 228, gets back through 232.45 then today's high, looks much better.
DKS Today's low great risk. Must clear 48.80 then 49.42
COG 40.94 max risk (10 DMA) and has to clear 42, then 42.89.
COST Has to hold 95.54, then has to clear 96.25 then today's high
MMM Has to hold 90.30, then today's high and R1 at 91.80
Category 2: (Pipeline) Positive Phase, Condition 2-3, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
HD 51.30 max risk. Has to clear 51.90, the pivots, then today's high
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
MON At this point, has to clear87.55 to keep going
Category 4: (Rip Tide) Oversold (2 or more days under FTP), Condition 4, Needs to clear R1, Risk previous day low unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
Phase Change: BHI had a gap after earnings and an unconfirmed phase change to accumulation today. 45.82 max risk and has to clear R1 47.70 Positive pivots RRC tested and closed above the 200 DMA. 63.20 good tight risk. WFM Bull Phase 91.60 max risk Over 93.65 would be good confirmation DRI Inside day, 2 days under pivots. Has to hold 51.00. clear 51.59 (R1 today's high) then recent highs 52.50 VRTX Inside day, Possible slingshot with positive pivots, provided 50.54 clears
Shorts: Not seeing too much right now-watch the giants if the market falls like AAPL GOOG IBM
Category 5:Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
HLF cannot clear 55.62. 48.00 the 50 DMA underlying support
Category 6: eWhite Cap-Having a 2-3 Day correction over the pivots. In a Negative Phase, Positive Pivots. Can sell an Opening Range High Failure if happens below R1 or previous day high whatever is higher and/or weakness if breaks S1 and prior day's lows
CLF 4 days up to the 10 DMA. Cannot break today's high and has to break below today's low
MCD Has to break 89.20
Bye for now!