We got through the FED, now the EU-that leavesUS unemployment numbers and then perhaps we can more clearly determine whether the last 4 down days are the end of summer fun, or another buy opportunity.
Subs: All pivots are negative which means the short term bias is down. But, the phase in all but IWM is bullish and a move above R1 a good sign with the market internals still positive
S&P 500 (SPY) Third distribution day in volume. Also, a doji on the fast moving average. 135.26 key support now-the gap low from 7/26. Subs: R1 and today's high line up.
Russell 2000 (IWM) 76.22 (7/24) last swing low. Back over 77.30 better and through 77.70 follow
Dow (DIA) Dropped to 127.50 before recovering back to close above the fast moving average. Best sign that all is not lost. Subs: R1 and today's high line up
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) 64.00 held amazingly well as did the fast moving average.Subs: Although R1 is important, my inclination is to wait for 65.31 to clear
ETFs:
GLD Subs:Over 155.35 and would get back in.
XLF (Financials) 14.30 the 50 DMA to hold
IBB (Biotechnology) Subs: As a strong overall performer, R1 and today's high line up here as well
SMH (Semiconductors) Subs: Tried one probe over the 200 DMA, now above it again and will try again for a swing
XRT (Retail) 57.00 area now needs to hold
IYT (Transportation) 87.76 last swing low now important level to hold
IYR (Real Estate) Continues to be most attractive as it held the fast moving average
USO (US Oil Fund) Subs: DOJI and hammer candle which means if continues to hold 32.20 will look for another entry but really 33.80 has to clear once and for all
OIH (Oil Services) Now, 39.60-80 has to clear
XLE (Energy) Must now clear today's high
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Subs:Closed above the fast moving average so still ok
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly.
Category 1: (Aloha) Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
AMZN If holds 228.40, gets back through 231.30 then today's high, looks much better.
EQIX Landed on the 10 DMA and now 173.34 must hold. 176 pivotal and today's high and R1 line up.
HMSY 32.72 is max risk and over 34.56 clears today's high and R1.
NOC 65.20 now should hold but now also prefer to see today's high and R1 clear
PCYC Closed up and now must hold 51.91
Category 2: (Pipeline) Positive Phase, Condition 2-3, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
COST Now a condition 3 from a condition 1 since slope on 10 DMA slightly down. 95.50 still important to hold and now, worth waiting for today's high and R1 to clear
EWW Prefer to wait for this to clear R1 and today's high and hold today's low
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
MON At this point, has to clear 87.55 to keep going
HFC Like it better over 38.00 and now has to hold 36.00
DDD Inside day. 36.06 the 10 DMA and risk. Through today's high should continue
DKS Bullish engulfing pattern. Now, has to hold 48.50 and needs to clear 50.86 to keep going
Category 4: (Rip Tide) Oversold (2 or more days under FTP), Condition 4, Needs to clear R1, Risk previous day low unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
Phase Change: IBM If today's low holds then over 194.95 looks better and over today's high better still. WFM Bull Phase 91.60 max risk Now 94.50 needs to clear. DRI Wait for 52.53 to clear and today's low to hold VRTX 49 has to hold now, positive pivots. Through 51.00 looks good PRU Big move. Look for opening range reversal
Shorts: After 4 down days, tomorrow may not be best time for new shorts.
Category 5:Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
FCX 31.00 has been good support, but now today's high is resistance and good risk on an opening range high failure only
Bye for now!