April 16, 2026
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
Oil is surging but this isn’t just about prices at the pump. It’s about a bigger macro shift.
WTI futures are trading around $90 a barrel, with gas prices over $4 a gallon. Technically, oil is holding above 85 with 95 now the key level to clear.
At the same time, we have a major supply disruption that is pushing global buyers toward U.S. energy.
But oil prices aren’t just about supply. They reflect scarcity today and uncertainty about tomorrow.
Now layer in the macro.
The dollar is weakening.
Yields are steady but not rising.
Many believe that commodities are in a super cycle.
And that may well be true.
But if oil stays elevated while the dollar and yields decline, that’s not a tailwind, that’s pressure building in the system.
Price always leads headlines.
Even with talk of the war ending, the market will tell you the story first.
Actionable Takeaway
Below 85 brings relief.
Above 95?
That’s your signal to reduce risk.
Don’t trade the headlines — trade the levels. The market already knows.
Note that this is different than our other YouTube channel featuring the Economic Modern Family.
Here is our latest EMF video
That is for financial literacy.
Mish’s Daily of Mish’s Market Minute on the MarketGauge YouTube channel under “shorts” is meant for the more serious self-directed investor.
They do, however, overlap.
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Mish in the Media-Want to see more? All clips here
April 16 Financial Compass The macro story investors cannot afford to ignore.
April 15 SingaporeRadio89.9BFM All-time Highs With Some Macro Signs to Watch
April 10 Cabot Podcast Sell Strength Buy Weakness
Coming Up:
April 22 Maggie Lake
April 23 Pre Market Prep
April 24 Financial Sense
ETF Summary
(Pivotal means short-term bullish above that level and bearish below)
S&P 500 (SPY) 696 support
Russell 2000 (IWM) 271.60 is the all time high-close but not thru
Dow (DIA) Lagging behind 477 key support
Nasdaq (QQQ) 629 now support at new all time high
Regional banks (KRE) 70 resistance now with 68 support
Semiconductors (SMH) Another new all-time high 428 support
Transportation (IYT) 79 now support
Biotechnology (IBB) 170 support
Retail (XRT) A huge test of resistance-Can it move over 85?
Bitcoin (BTCUSD) If holds over 74k see 88k next
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