SPY We did indeed confirm a Distribution phase today but, also acquired an Accumulation day in volume with a hammer candle. The criteria for blow off bottoms is nearly double the average volume. That didn't quite happen, but clearly the strong volume is encouraging. I am keeping my eye on the 50 weekly moving average at 126.38. Another up day with decent volume and a close above that level will at the very least bring some renewed confidence to the badly beaten up market.
QQQ Did a fake out when early on it broke the 160 EMA and 200 DMA support levels. Then, it came back through and wound up closing strong with its first close above the floor trader pivot. It rallied right up to 54.85 the 50 weekly moving average and settled beneath. That is now the area to watch tomorrow.
IWM 77.63 is the 50 weekly moving average and really the area to clear before we begin to discuss a bottom. LikeSPY, strong volume. Also, pivot now support if good at 76.50.
ETFs:
GLD Small rally after the market closed, but technically had a distribution day in volume since was the highest it has been in quite some time, and the NY closing price was down from previous close. 160.90 is S1. If fear is subsiding and that level breaks, would consider taking profits on recent longs.
SLV Just the opposite in this metal. Huge volume spike on rally. 40.47 the FTP to hold. Major support at 39.20. Some possibility of a blow off rally when volume spikes like that so if long, use trailing stops.
OIH** Still watching but no position yet. Held the 200 DMA today which was a great buy opportunity if you were watching. Also closed above the 50 DMA. Now, if holds 149.94 the FTP depending on how it opens, would watch for an entry again. R1 is at 153.29, clears that and very strong signal.
IYT 88.90 did not hold initially, but it did rally above it and closed with a hammer candle without the strong volume pattern. 90.27 R1 resistance. Gets through there and could see 91.45 the 50 weekly moving average.
IYR** Did double the volume today with a hammer candle so a really good one to watch for a bottom. 57.50 the 50 weekly moving average. Could buy above and risk to the FTP at 57.21.
TBT I know many longer term traders holding this ETF thinking that rates will go up. They are now at historical lows. Only a move above 29.80 the low from 2010 could possibly reverse the current trend. Then swing traders can use the low from this week as a risk.
Longs: Had a good day from the long side. Now, will watch to see if we get follow through. Huge selloffs present good buy opportunities and today's video shows some ways to look at strong and weak stocks with low risks.IDCC great buy above the 30 min OR and R1.
Note: AAPL bought for miniswing today. Since pivots negative, must now clear 396.57 R1 to stay long. FTP at 389.41 should it come in weaker.
SLB**Touched the 200 DMA and 160 EMA closing above the 50 DMA and 70 EMA. But, it could not clear the pivots. So now, 86.39 is the FTP. If that holds, corresponds with the 50 DMA at 86.32 for a low risk trade. Must clear R1 88.47 to stay strong. Day to Swing
TZOO Positive pivots again at 56.51. Rallied to the 160 EMA and retreated but still looks good. The 200 DMA support is 54.60. Would not chase, but watch for an OR reversal. Day to mini
ACE** 10 DMA crossed the 50 DMA which is sloping up. Now inside day. Positive pivots at 66.65 now a good area to watch for a hold. Over 67.07 will have to clear R1 at 67.24. But overall chart looks strong. Day to Swing
CROX**Condition 1 with 2 days under the FTP coming at 30.06. The 10 DMA which should now hold at 29.21. Daytrade risk under last hour low. High after earnings 32.47. Since on new highs can continue if market stays strong. Day to mini (with Condition 1 stocks, a low risk is a hold of the FTP for daytrading)
QCOR**Condition 1 stock with 2 days under the FTP coming in at 30.87. 10 DMA at 29.46. Recent high 32.78. Since on new highs can continue if market stays strong. Day to mini
MCP reports August 11. 2 days under the FTP at 59.16. Should hold the 70 EMA at 57.95. Above R1 62, could see a run before earnings to recent high 66.62. Day to mini
COG** Another strong stock with 2 days under the FTP at 72.83, now a good tight risk. 73.14 is the closing price and 10 DMA. Has resistance at 74, but a close above there and could see back to recent hi 78.94. Day to mini
JOYG reports August 31. Still oversold with 7 days under the FTP at 87.79. What I like is that it is holding the 200 DMA at 88.64. If the FTP holds, and it clears R1 at 90.42, could see a run to 93 area. Day to mini
Shorts: Need more of a rally to see new short setups
GET oversold on weekly but not daily with negative pivots at 27.16. Held the 200 weekly first time down yesterday at 25.76 with an inside day today. If cannot get through R1 at 27.96 would watch for a new short. Day to mini
NETL Not oversold on daily. Has negative pivots at 33.24. Can sell break with tight risk to today's high. Support 30.55 Day to Swing
Goodnight!
