Inside day in the indexes which on the heels of a huge move Friday, given the low volume then and now, is not surprising at all. But, if a believer in trading the phase, one has to think "buy".
S&P 500 (SPY)Always recommend following the way the range breaks after inside days.Subs: Positive pivots and inside day-can look at a reversal if today's low holds and a breakout over Friday's high
Russell 2000 (IWM)Through 80.06 should be good to follow. Subs:Negative pivots so has to hold today's low.
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ)Still thinking not the best index play ahead of lots of earnings. Subs: Positive Pivots
ETFs:
GLD Inside day, which means could be a short under Monday low if cannot clear 155.
XLF (Financials) Closed above the trend line. 14.55 major support to hold
IBB (Biotechnology) Back through the fast moving average
SMH (Semiconductors) Weak sister. As long as the June low holds might be a chance for a short covering rally. Otherwise, it's a thorn in the market's side.
XRT (Retail) If Monday's news didn't kill it and it holds the 50 DMA, that would be impressive
IYT (Transportation) Inside day at interesting resistance
IYR (Real Estate)Proved itself as it now nears overbought
USO (US Oil Fund) Unconfirmed phase change to recovery-back over the 50 DMA
OIH (Oil Services) Confirmed recovery phase. Has to clear 37.00 now
XLE (Energy) Filled the gap and closed above-better looking now
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Subs: Today's high 14.69 which means a gap higher and the island bottom becomes more possible. Needs two days to confirm. JNK-I like this one over 39.50 and a really good sign for market if holds above there
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Particularly interested in anything that had an inside day with positive pivots tomorrow
Category 1: (Aloha) Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: N/A
Category 2:(Pipeline) Positive Phase, Condition 2-3, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: N/A
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
EXPE Inside day and positive pivots. This time risk real tight-today's low max. And like to see it clear today's high
CF Not an inside day, but close to all-time highs. Like to see 197.00 max risk.
COG Inside day. Good risk to today's low. Reports 7/24
DVA Inside day. Has to hold 97.70 and over 99.00 should go to new highs
FDX Inside day. Has to hold today's low. Over R1 nice correspondence with today's high
FMC Narrow range day. Like to see today's low hold. If clears 54.00 could see run before earnings 7/31.
MCK Reports 7/30. Inside day. Like to see today's low hold and clear today's high
WWW Inside day. Has to hold today's low.
TRIP Inside day. Reports 8/1. Would not risk more than 45.50.
Category 4: (Rip Tide) Oversold (2 or more days under FTP), Condition 1-4, Needs to clear R1, Risk previous day low unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
Phase Change: JWN Inside day-really should clear 51.90 and hold today's low. Pivots positive.WPRT Nice start and now has to clear 35.50 to keep going with risk 34.65 DTV Inside day slightly positive pivots. Like to see today's low hold and clear 48.85 the 10 DMA to stick. FWaiting for it to clear 9.40 now. POT Reports 7/26. Only if clears 44.50
Shorts: Mainly interested in inside days with negative pivots and not oversold
Category 5:Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
ANF Inside day. Cannot clear today's high and like to see it break 34.00
PAY Inside day. Cannot clear today's high and like to see today's low break as well.
BHP Inside day. Cannot clear today's high
TCK Narrow range day. Should not clear today's high
WAT Inside day. Like to see S1 break here. Reports 7/24
JPM Cannot clear today's high. Gap to fill to 34.57 and beneath there could see move to 33.50 or lower
Category 6: White Cap-Having a 2-3 Day correction over the pivots. In a Negative Phase, Positive Pivots. Can sell an Opening Range High Failure if happens below R1 or previous day high whatever is higher and/or weakness if breaks S1 and prior day's lows N/A
Bye for now!
