SPY as explained on the video, is clearly in a situation where it could correct further to 131.30 or work sideways and then resume the move up. Today's volume was extremely light which always makes corrections suspect. But, we still have a negative sloping 50 day moving average which keeps the bullish phase relatively weak for the time being. Yet, it held the fast moving average now at 132.36.
QQQ if you haven't already done so, please review today's video where I go into depth about the flat channel that developed near the highs back in May compared to the trendline breakout and attempt at the highs that is occurring currently. This also had extremely light volume and unlike SPY has a neutral slope on the 50 day moving average. Tomorrow the pivots are positive. Therefore, provided it holds above 58.10, through the FTP at 58.76 would expect the rally to resume. Otherwise, at this point, a failure of the adaptive moving average and the 10 day moving average would not be encouraging.
IWM did not get through the 10 day moving average, which was a significant clue. However, with the 50 day moving average neutralizing in slope and the positive pivots tomorrow, once this clears 83.50, should see follow-through to the upside. After that, could very well take another shot up at the all time high 86.82.
The debt ceiling goes unresolved and the recent round of earnings came in mixed. I still see the dips as buy opportunities. However, I suggest only buying strong stocks or ETF's that have clear risks against moving averages.
Featured ETFS:
GLD had an inside day. We did not reenter the long position even though it broke above the FTP and closed on R1. Now, using the rules for an inside day, considering how strong chart is, follow it above today's high and to control risk use a stop under S1 or154.72.
SLV held S1 and closed just shy of R1. Now, above 39.75 should continue to move up with the initial target of 44 to 45 still applicable.
EWC*holding 32, but now would like to see a close above 32.27 to get to its next target at 33.20.
XRT held the support at 54.32, but now with negative pivots, if it fails to get back above 54.60 and takes out 54.10, we could see a move back down to the 50 day moving average. Above 54.75 and today's high 55.08, should see a move to 56.
IBB did not perform as well as some of the other sectors yesterday. Today after a strong open, sold off and tested the positive sloping 50 day moving average at 106.48. The FTP is slightly positive, so a move back above 107.30 provided it holds today's low, will look positive.
SMH still holding the 50 weekly moving average yet ran right up to 200 daily moving average once again and backed off. Since this hasn't violated its long-term bullish trend, provided it now holds above 32.35, if it clears the 200 day moving average expect a rally up to 34.
OIH overall target 166. Would continue to be a buyer of dips.
XLE now see a possible move up to 81.
XLF reversed the recent down trend and provided it continues to hold 14.60, could see a rally up to 15.25. The 50 weekly moving average is at 15.50.
FXI Bought through the 200 weekly moving average. Depending on where it opens, will look for 41.60 to initially hold. Target 43.30
Longs: Focus tonight on inside days and Nuggets that outperformed the market. Any pick that has positive pivots, provided it holds previous day low, the fast moving average and/or S1 are also candidates for opening range reversals.
WYNN** Held the 10 DMA and has 2 days under the FTP after the earnings report. The FTP comes in at 160.34 with a good risk to today's low 157.68 for swing, miniswing to the 10 DMA at 159.70. Above 163, could go back to the high 172.58. Day to swing
NTES**reports August 15. After the inside day yesterday, today was pretty quiet. Didn't have either an opening range reversal or an opening range breakout. Now, with pivots still positive, if it holds 48.84 the FTP, then using the 10 day moving average now at 47.86 as a risk, next overhead resistance at 50 from last week, but above that, projected move to 53.50. But also consider an opening range reversal on this. All time high made in April at 55.Day to swing
ACOM reports July 28. Inside day with positive pivots coming in at 44.53. At this point, would wait for it to clear above yesterdays high 45.18 and risk to the FTP because after all of this consolidation, it needs to get moving or not worth looking at ahead of earnings. Day to mini
GPRO*reports July 28. Was upgraded today and held a very interesting place on both daily and weekly charts. On the daily, it is right on the 200 day moving average at 63.17 with an inside day today. On the weekly chart yesterday's low held the 50 weekly moving average at 60.89. Tomorrow the pivots are at 62.97 and positive. Provided it holds today's low 62.44 and stays above the FTP and the 200 day moving average, the most conservative move would be to buy above R1 63.50. Then, overhead resistance at 65.15 where the 10 day moving average is and then better resistance at the 160 day exponential moving average 66.24. Day to mini
AXP**reported today positively. Would risk only to 51.57 where S1 is. With positive pivots at 52.14, buy above that and if this gets through today's high at 52.70, breaks a trendline on the daily and weekly with a projected move to about 57. Day to swing
SGY**reports August 2. the 50 has not crossed above the 200 weekly moving average, yet the daily chart is stacked and sloped. With positive pivots, as long as it holds 33.15 with a risk conservatively to today's low 32.71, should resume the move up the overhead resistance at 35.50. Day to mini
CF**reports August 4 made new intraday highs this week at 159 which beat the old high at 158.42. Closed at 157.40. Would risk only to 156.20 S1 and only buy above today's high if there is volume coming in. Day to mini.
MHP*reports July 28. Inside day. Another limited risk down to S1 at 42.91. Positive pivots coming in at 43.10. Above that, all-time high was made in May at 43.50. If it takes that out could have a nice run up to about 47. Day to mini.
DECK**reports July 28. All time high was made in April at 97. The 10 day moving average is at 93.69 with S1 at 93.82. That's the area of support and risk. Positive pivots coming in at 95.16. Daytraders looking for a tighter risk can use the last hour low at 94.84. If this can get back above 97, could see a move to 110 although probably not before earnings unless the market cooperates. Day to Mini
Shorts: there only two ways I would consider going short for anything longer than a scalp-one way is to sell against resistance on the 30 minute opening range high failure. The other way is to sell the 30 minute opening range low failure.
NVLS*would not be short above 32.64, the 50 weekly moving average, but if it cannot get above 32.23 and breaks 31.91 S1, could see a move down to support at 30.48. Day to mini
SLXP*reports August 8. Has not been able to get back above the 50 weekly moving average at 39.60. Negative pivots tomorrow coming in at 38.40. The failure of that and especially a break of today's low and S1 at 38.23, could see a drop back down to support at 35.15. Day to mini
Goodnight!