SPY came within a few ticks of filling the gap that was left on the island top day July 7. The low that day was 134.88 and today's high 134.82. Unless for some reason, we have a strong down move tomorrow, at this point it seems likely we will fill that gap thus negating the island top. That is a very good sign. Another good sign is the volume that came in today giving us an Accumulation day- the first one since July 15.
QQQ recent high 59.36 made on July 7. A close above that on a weekly basis gives the possibility of a significant move to the upside with an overall target of 66.
IWM as mentioned in last night's blog, once this cleared 83.50, we did indeed see the follow-through to the upside. Now looking for a move to test the recent highs at 86.82. 83.20 now key support.
Although the debt ceiling deal has not been agreed upon completely, I have found it impossible to fathom the possibility that our politicians would allow the stock market to collapse because of some bizarre notion that they are toting the party line. Without Wall St. support, the party for many of them would be over. I guess in a certain way we can be grateful for all of the politicizing since the dips have been incredible buying opportunities.
Featured ETFS:
GLD had a second inside day. Holding the fast moving average at 154.06. The old all-time was 153.61 now a reasonable risk. Chart formation is still extremely strong and I would still be looking for an entry especially if we can get a second day under the floor trader pivot.
SLV** held S1 again and had an inside day. Forming a wedge which will break out above today's high 39.03 especially on a closing basis. 38.40 is the FTP and the area that must clear. Can buy half there and add over today's high. Risk 37.36, the fast moving average.
EWC* target 33.20.
XRT did not perform as well as market but managed to hold above the fast moving average at 54.60. Under today's low 54.46 which coincides with S1, this would start to look vulnerable. At that point look for possible move to retest the 50 day moving average of 52.85. On the upside, above 55.45 next resistance at the all-time high of 56.
IBB wrote that a move above 107.30 would look positive and indeed it opened higher and proceeded to have a good rally. Now, must clear 109.47 at which point looking for a move up to 113.
SMH a good lesson on why it is important to look at the longer-term trend and not just the daily chart. Now, the 200 day moving average is a factor and resistance at 33.41 with the 160 day exponential moving average at 33.48. Clear that and it should fill the gap up to 34.03.
XLF came real close to the 50 weekly moving average at 15.50. Will be interesting to see what happens there. Has been rallying for the last three days. The perfect scenario would be a close above 15.50 maybe even a move to 15.70 and then, a bit of consolidation in that range before a continued move up. Certainly, that would be helpful to the overall market.
FXI still long from 42 looking for a move to 43.30
Longs: Some post-earnings trades and a couple of Nuggets that have good short-term trading patterns. We continue to hold many of our positions (new ones today- GPRO, SGY, LVS, CF-good daytrade) plus ones that were put on last week and earlier this week, although we have lightened up on the rallies and continue to trail up stops. The list was hot WYNN, MHP, DECK-hopefully, some of you entered any of these. LO-was a perfect swing trade if you were willing to risk to 107.50, which I had written about a couple of days ago. The video today features buying the 5 minute opening range-great for days like today.
NTES**reports August 15. Disappointing action today but not enough to remove it from the list. Held at the 10 day moving average now at 47.92 today's low 47.80. Had an opening range reversal but never went anywhere. Now, the most conservative trade would be to wait for it to take out R1 at 48.95. Swing traders can risk to 47.62, mini swing traders to the FTP at 48.37 or today's low 47.80 and daytraders the FTP 48.37. Next overhead resistance at 50 from last week, but above that, projected move to 53.50. All time high made in April at 55. Day to swing
CMG**a classic Condition 1 stock two days under the floor trader pivot and earnings out-of-the-way. The FTP is positive and comes in at 328.84. The weekly chart beginning to look a bit overbought so would mainly trade this for a day to mini swing. The 10 day moving average is at 326 and today's low 325.76. All-time high was made on July 19 at 333.71. Projected move to 350. Day to mini.
NFLX reports Monday. Good support on the daily chart at 274.25. Has two days under the floor trader pivot but is a Condition 4 because the slope on the 10 day moving average is negative. But, it is still a Nugget. The FTP is at 278.57. That would give you a good low risk to the low this week. Above that, has to clear R1 at 282. No reason why it shouldn't make a pop before earnings to overhead resistance now at 295. Day trade and if holding, must exit before earnings.
BIIB reports July 26. Two inside days. If holds 104.10, and gets through 106.29 R1, especially on a closing basis, could see a run before earnings possibly up to 117. Day to mini
ALB reported today. The 10 day moving average is at 68.71 which is a good risk point provided if holds above the FTP at 69.32. All time high was made in June at 71.79. Through that next resistance at 76. Day to swing.
AMD**reported today. Very rarely do I ever mention a stock that is trading under $10 with an ATR of only .26. However, has huge average daily volume. The 200 weekly moving average is at 6.60, which it traded below this week and now should open above. In fact, should open above 6.72 which will then give it the possibility of a move up to 7.20 with the next major overhead resistance at the 50 day moving average at 7.55. This stock in 2006 had an all-time high of 42.70. 10.24 the high of 2010, is also a retracement to a neckline of a huge head and shoulders top on the weekly chart. Mini to swing
Shorts: there only two ways I would consider going short for anything longer than a scalp-one way is to sell against resistance on the 30 minute opening range high failure. The other way is to sell the 30 minute opening range low failure.
PAY**40.36 is the 50 weekly moving average and still the point that needs to break to stay short. Now though, it is back beneath the 200 day moving average at 43.15 with today's high 43.09. The FTP which is negative comes in at 41.87 a good place to sell against unless it clears 42.52 on the upside. Day to swing.
CTRP reports August 1. Hanging onto the 200 day moving average and barely hanging onto the 50 weekly moving average at 43.85. Pivots are neutral coming in at 44.20. If it fails today's low 43.85, would sell risking today's high 44.67 in anticipation of it dropping to support at 41.75. Day to mini
Goodnight!