SPY broke the range of the inside day from Friday in the first 30 minutes, but as suggested was not a short opportunity, instead an opportunity to buy the dip. Now, there is still underlying support at 132.50 area and if 133.80 area holds, could see another attempt to today's highs 134.50. With the market so politically charged, it is wreaking havoc on technical traders. However, above today's high is extremely positive at least for the case of a retest of the recent high at 137.18.
QQQ 59.36 area on a closing basis still key considering it was the recent high until Friday. If that holds, still see the possibility that the leaders such as AAPL, GOOG and now BIDU will rule and the rally will continue. Otherwise, has underlying support now at 58.30. Slope on the 50 day moving average has turned positive.
IWM 83.10 still key support. If it clears 84.30 see a move to 87. Below 83.10 a move down to 82. Right now, the weakest of the three.
While the debt limit has never caused the federal government to default on its obligations, it has at times caused great inconvenience and has added uncertainty to Treasury operations. Certainly we are feeling that inconvenience now. But, the bubble that technical traders try to live in confirm diversion at best-NASDAQ and the earnings of the leaders suggest higher prices. The S and P 500 and midcaps have longer term trends that are positive and shorter term trends that are mixed. For now, watch the stronger sector and groups. It continues to be a stock picker's market.
Featured ETFS:
GLD 158 next area to penetrate. Now, 156.70 today's low support otherwise could see a move down to 155.
SLV 38.75 now key support to hold. Through today's high 39.80 next resistance 40.45
XRT broke 54.45 the low of the last couple of days of last week and the fast moving average. Could see a dip down to 53.70 area. Above 54.75 next resistance 55.30.
IBB at this point, beginning to look like a failure from the attempt at matching the all-time high. 106.45 is the 50 day moving average and key support.
SMH** impressively held 200 day moving average at 33.46. Still has not filled the gap up to 34.03. The 50 day moving average comes in at 34.01. Once it fills the gap and gets through the 50 day, especially on a closing basis, next resistance up to 35.36.
IYR the high on July 7 was 63 and last Friday it came real close with a high of 62.95. Today it gapped lower and closed weak. 61.65 is the fast moving average and support to hold.
IYT now two days under the floor trader pivot. 97.38 now key support to hold. A move back above today's high and 98.16 R1 will be encouraging.
Longs: Continue to look at inside days and Condition 1 and 2 Nuggets with short-term trading patterns.
JVA*already reported. Now three days under the floor trader pivot and a Condition 4 due to the negatively sloping overhead 10 day moving average at 21.55. The FTP is at 20.64. Last swing low 18.54 now critical support. Would first want to see it get above the FTP and confirm with an opening range breakout, then it must clear R1 21.41. Made a huge run three weeks ago and with this recent selloff, has worked off all of its overbought condition. If it can clear the resistance points and the fast moving average, next significant overhead resistance at 26.80. All time high 30.98. Day to swing.
SINA*two inside days held S1 and rallied in the aftermarket after BIDU reported. Above 116.75, could see a quick pop to 121.20 with recent high 125.37. Support to hold 113.98 tomorrow's FTP. Next major overhead resistance at 139. Day to swing Reports August 1.
SGY**I had no reason to exit from my long entry last week other than the fact that the whole market became a concern. Now, two days under the FTP provided that it holds 33.65 the FTP, this time once it clears 34.20 the recent high, it is more likely to go up and test the hi from April at 35.87 with next overhead resistance at 38.50.Reports August 2. Day to mini
CF*reports August 4. Held S1 and made its entire range in the first 30 minutes. Now, with two days under the floor trader pivot which is positive coming in at 160.84, above that can risk to under 159 to see if it can gather momentum once again to take out today's high 163.25 and continue onto new highs. Day to mini.
ISRG*now has two days under the floor trader pivot-and holding and closing above S1. The FTP is at 400.80. Would not risk more than today's low 397.67. Must also clear R1 403.93. All-time high 415.19. Day to mini.
JOYG inside day. At this point would wait for it to take out 101.44 before buying unless it gets an opening range reversal. Buying on strength risk is to the FTP 100.04. Overhead resistance 105. Day to swing.
AMD inside day. Would wait for a move above 7.78 to see if it can catch momentum to get above the 200 day moving average of 8.01. Mini to swing.
HXL**reported today and beat Wall Street expectations. Had two days under the FTP which it should gap above tomorrow. 23.90 is the FTP. 24.39 is the multiyear high which it should also gap above. In 2007 the all time high was 27.91. Day to swing.
TD*there is a trendline coming down from the highs that was made in April. The last two trading days have been DOJI candles. Plus today was an inside day. 84.85 to 85.05 are now pivotal areas. Plus, since the FTP is negative, it must now hold above 84.69. A close above today's high would break the trendline. On the weekly chart once this clears 85.81, could see a move up to all time high made in April at 89.79 and beyond. Worth a swing trade but swing traders must risk down to 83.35 the 50 day moving average. Day to swing
Hon. mention MCP inside day, positive pivots. If it holds 59.70 next overhead resistance 61.99. VHC has been holding the gap low from July 6 at 33.55. Three days under the FTP, now at 34.48. Above that looks better using the gap low as a risk, but must clear 35.16 R1.
Shorts:
PAY*featured in today's video. Has negative stack of pivots coming in at 41.53. 42.37 the 10 day moving average good near-term resistance. But, it still must break the 50 weekly moving averages 40.78 to stay short.Day to Swing
MET*reports July 28 unless it clears 41.57, still looks negative with next support 39.92 Day to mini.
AMP reports July 28. 54.57 resistance. Negative pivots at 54.24. Could drop to 52.17 before earnings and possibly lower. Day to mini.
Goodnight!