SPY The island top I have been writing about and fearing would confirm-well, thank you government for making it so. Now we have broken the 50 DMA which never got to a neutral let alone positive slope. The long term trend is still intact but clearly lots of damage done today. 131.25 is the 50 DMA and return over the FTP. 132 is R1. These would be good points to watch. Otherwise, 129.63 was the last swing low which interestingly happened on July 18th.
QQQ First clue was the open under 59.36, the line in the sand I have been writing about. There is a gap to 57.79 which would be better if not filled. Slope on the 50 DMA still positive. Other numbers to watch for-58.44 the FTP and 58.94 R1.
IWM Have also been writing about concern in midcaps since it broke 83.00. Went through 81 support like a hot knife in butter. Stopped at the 160 EMA. Over 81.30 some relief. Otherwise looking at 79.46 the 200 DMA.
ETFs:
GLD-Did not like the action today and even though the overall chart formation is very strong-still looking for more of a correction.
SLV Bearish Engulfing Pattern. Under 38.80 definitely see more downside
XLE**Damage done but still in uptrend. Over R1 78.36 good sign. Big support 77.09 and gap I do not want filled to 76.74.
OIH 157.14 fast moving average support and still in uptrend. Over 160.46 R1 good sign
IYT First clue to today since earlier this week. 200 DMA at 93.15. Oversold on the 2-day RSI-wouldn't get excited about a rally-probably an opportunity to short-but for now, would not short down here and see if it can move back up to 96.25.
IYR 60 good support especially since also oversold on 2-Day RSI. Looks like 63 for now, double top.
SMH 32.50 the 50 weekly moving average. Big area to watch for either a move above or now resistance.
FXI **if holds 41.90, would consider buying again with a risk to under 41.77 the 200 weekly moving average
FXE 142.50 key support. 144 now interim resistance
Longs: Condition 1 and 2 mainly that either held S1 or didn't but held key averages and now must clear R1, Also, nothing that reports this week.
MCP**Reports August 11. Inside day and held S1. To control risk, would wait for it to clear 61.45 and risk to today's lows. 66.43 overhead resistance. Day to mini
IBM** Closed right on the 10 DMA at 181.20. With 3 days under the FTP, must clear 181.73 first, then R1 182.52. Resistance at 185.60. Day to mini
ISRG** Not yet close to the 10 DMA at 386.19. The FTP is at 396.98 and R1 at 401.38. The day it gapped after earnings the low was 392.12-have to see how it opens to assess the lowest and clearest risk. Day to mini.
JVA**GMCR had killer earnings. This now has to clear R1 at 18.63 even though the FTP is now at 17.93. If it clears R1 use the FTP as a risk. Still can see a move to at least 24. Day to swing
GPOR**Reports August 4th. Held the 10 DMA and S1. 3 days under the FTP now at 34.28. Today's low good risk 33.53. Must clear R1 35.04 to keep the long confirmed. Day to mini
CF**Reports August 4th. 3 days under the FTP at 156.74 with the 10 DMA at 156.67. Still in an uptrend but must clear R1 at 158.43 to stay strong. Good tight risk to today's low155.02. Day to mini
Shorts:
BA**Reported today. If it breaks the 50 weekly moving average at 70.42, also takes out today's low. Since pivots are positive, would not sell strength, rather wait for weakness. Now, the 200 DMA at 71.33 could be close resistance with the FTP at 71.46. Day to swing
APKT**Broke under the 50 weekly moving average today at 58.83-now a good risk. Negative pivots at 59.51 should it try to rally. One I would consider selling on strength. Underlying support at 48.80 Day to swing
WHR**Under 71.00 takes out all of the work done since September 2010. 68.90 next support. The 200 weekly moving average overhead resistance at 72.42. The FTP which is negative comes in at 71.51. Day to Swing
DO 68.69 the 50 weekly moving average to break. Has a trendline that breaks under 67.90. Over 70 would not be short. Negative pivots that come in at 69.25. Day to Swing
Goodnight!