Coming into Monday, the NASDAQ leadersand the semiconductors had to prove themselves. The Financial Sector had to hold, but not necessarily rally. The indexes are all near their 50 DMA except the DJ Industrials, which are on the 50 DMA. Volume is real light. Many investors remain sidelined. This could make for a substantial run should they come back in. It could also make for a run to the exits for speculators wanting to protect their longs if the investors stay away as the week continues.
S&P 500 (SPY)135 the 50 DMA and if good, should now hold 134.25 level Subs: All indexes have positive pivots, so watching S1
Russell 2000 (IWM)5/29 high continues to elude. 76.15 support and 78.15 the area to clear
Dow (DIA) 127.28 the 200 DMA-which is sloping down-very interesting price points
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Closed above 63.15 with that number now to hold and 64.10 the 50 DMA to clear
ETFs:
GLD Recovery phase and looking like anticipating FED news
XLF (Financials) DOJI holding the weekly moving averages. Digestion not such a bad thing for now
IBB (Biotechnology) All-time highs back in the midst unless it breaks 122.95
SMH (Semiconductors) Cleared the 200 DMA. A second close above good sign
XRT (Retail) Eyes on this sector since as a former 2012 leader, still underperforming
IYT (Transportation) Cleared the 50 DMA and took off-eyes on the earnings for FedEx
IYR (Real Estate) Unless it breaks today's low, looks poised for higher prices
USO (US Oil Fund) Over today' s high, could see a relief rally
XLE (Energy) 64.30fast moving average to hold or trouble here again
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move. Note: Picks not overbought.
Category 1:(Aloha) Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
Category 2:(Pipeline) Positive Phase, Condition 2-3, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: N/A
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
AAPL Back to bullish phase unconfirmed-should hold 578.
ALXN Another inside day with room to go. Can use 93.07 S1 tight risk
AOL Back against the 10 DMA and improved to condition 3
EQR Today's low max risk. Over recent highs has room
PPG Long at 102.70 for swing. Good close with room to upside
HOG Sideways consolidating action-over recent highs looks good
SHW Long today. With possible new highs if market stays firm-OR reversal preferred
TRIP 43.35 max risk.
ULTA 95.30 should hold
Category 4: (Rip Tide) Oversold (2 or more days under FTP), Condition 1-4, Needs to clear R1, Risk previous day low unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: N/A
Other: BUD-still in bull phase-2 days under pivots-if holds today's lows, clears R1 could see new leg. AGN After DOJI, now narrow range day. Confirms phase change to bullish-Look at strength or weakness. COFOR reversal preferred LULU 61.50 should holdAEM 41.60 to hold. The 200 DMA 42.40 ORLY OR reversal preferred XOM Narrow range, inside day on the 50 DMA if clears 83.42 good CF PX Back to warning phase
Shorts:
Category 5:Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
MCD Cannot clear 90.76 and should break S1
GD Cannot clear 65.22. Like to see 64.71 break
FMCN Cannot clear today's high
JPM Cannot clear today's highDB also vulnerable
FCX Cannot clear 34.59
Category 6: White Cap-Having a 2-3 Day correction over the pivots. In a Negative Phase, Positive Pivots. Can sell an Opening Range High Failure if happens below R1 or previous day high whatever is higher and/or weakness if breaks S1 and prior day's lows
HUM Cannot clear 80.00 and like to see 78.80 break
INFY Has to break 44.00
Goodnight!