Hello 50 DMA! Nice to see you again. All indexes are now back into an unconfirmed bull phase. And so we have it, a perfect lesson on following the phases as they deteriorate and improve-all in the month of June! We like 2-days to confirm a phase change, which makes the analysis easier. We got long many ETFs and stocks a while back and have cushions. Now, the 50 DMA becomes the area the market has to support. The internals are approaching overbought. Best case scenario is some consolidation to bring in sidelined investors who are still waiting to see what happens here. And of course, there's the FOMC.
S&P 500 (SPY)134.90 the 50 DMA eyes will be on
Russell 2000 (IWM)78.13 the 50 DMA with some support at 77.84 as well
Dow (DIA) 127.26 the 50 DMA
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) 64.03 the 50 DMA but unless it breaks 63.15, will look at dips as buy opportunities. Plus, will be hard to chase up here
ETFs:
GLD 156.75 the 50 DMA
XLF (Financials) Great follow through after DOJI day. 14.62 the overhead 50 DMA 14.30 the area to hold
IBB (Biotechnology) New all-time highs
SMH (Semiconductors)Recommended a follow on this over the 200 DMA last Friday. Now, looking at the 50 DMA 32.67 as some resistance as it approaches overbought
XRT (Retail) Getting closer to the 50 DMA, but remains a first place to go if the market should rollover for a short
IYT (Transportation) Like to see some consolidation here
IYR* (Real Estate) Paused with an inside day and DOJI. That tells me, good place to go for a continuation move.
USO (US Oil Fund) Meager start of a relief rally. Over 31.90 gets interesting
XLE (Energy)Subs: Chart lesson here-when the longer term trend remains intact, the slingshot pattern on the daily becomes more compelling
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) 16.12 was the point to clear and still is
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Picks not overbought nor extended. (Using a conservative 92% 2-Day RSI.) Otherwise, rather be patient
Category 1:(Aloha) Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
FDO Has to hold today's low. Clear the FTP at 72.80, then R1.
Category 2:(Pipeline) Positive Phase, Condition 2-3, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: N/A
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
AAPL Back to bullish phase-should hold 578. Approaching overbought but this is AAPL
ORLY 98.84 good support to hold
ULTA Inside day-like to see today's low hold
Category 4: (Rip Tide) Oversold (2 or more days under FTP), Condition 1-4, Needs to clear R1, Risk previous day low unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: N/A
Other: EQR Inside day. Today' s low good risk CVX 103.00 to hold and 104.50 to clear. EOG Narrow range day. Long term trend intact. EDU Inside day. Like to see today's low hold. HOG An Opening Range Reversal would be preferred STT OR reversal preferred TRIP Provided 63.65 holds, can buy strength or weakness
Shorts:
Category 5:Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
APA Cannot clear today's high and has support at the 10 DMA 84.28
MCD Cannot clear 90.25
FFIV Cannot clear 102.53
Category 6: White Cap-Having a 2-3 Day correction over the pivots. In a Negative Phase, Positive Pivots. Can sell an Opening Range High Failure if happens below R1 or previous day high whatever is higher and/or weakness if breaks S1 and prior day's lows
REGN Should not clear 116.55 and fail S1
NTAP Cannot clear today's high and like to see it break today's low
CTSH Like to see today's low break
CXO Should not clear today's high
INFY 44.40 good resistance if stays weak. Has to break 44.00
Goodnight!