Hello Goodbye-Title of a Beatles song and ode to the now elusive 50 DMA. Volume was not as heavy as it was yesterday. Then again, we have been writing that many investors remain sidelined. Since Friday is upon us, expect a relatively quiet session, low volume and perhaps some digestion holding Thursday's low.
S&P 500 (SPY) Back in an unconfirmed warning phase slicing through the 50 and fast DMAs and closing just beneath the 160 EMA.Subs: Using pivots alone, unless any of the indexes cross R1 have to take a sell rallies and OR high failure bias.
Russell 2000 (IWM)76.00 is the 200 DMA which should hold for Friday at least
Dow (DIA) Broke the 50 DMA of course, but landed on the 160 EMA.
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) 62.00 is the 160 EMA. 62.95 the fast moving average. At this point, the first place to look should the market firm
ETFs:
GLD Subs: Wish I had seen the opening range high failure against S1. A thing of beauty.
XLF (Financials) Besides the QQQs, second place I would look at to hold since landed on the fast moving average. On the other hand, never returned to a bullish phase along with the indexes. Fate uncertain for sure
IBB (Biotechnology) Those interesting candles were ominous after all. Filled the gap from 2 days ago and still the best looking ETF. But, not sure how much that means if the market continues to fall
SMH (Semiconductors) I write about RSI and overbought/oversold conditions if nothing else to illustrate why not to buy or sell when those numbers are extended. Anyone who was long form the 200 DMA, had plenty of chances to get out with a profit.
XRT (Retail) "First place to go if market rolls over for a short" Wow
IYT (Transportation) Would not exactly call today consolidation, but it did manage to hold the 50 DMA
IYR (Real Estate) Landed on the 70 EMA and not as beaten up as many of the other sectors
USO (US Oil Fund) 29.10 2011 low as this now oversold
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Category 1:(Aloha) Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
AMZN Since closed under S1, needs to clear the FTP at 222.36 and hold today's low for starters
COST Since closed under S1, needs to clear the FTP at 90.96 and hold 90.00 for starters
Category 2:(Pipeline) Positive Phase, Condition 2-3, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
SWI 43.80 is max risk and like to see 44.77 the FTP cross which lines up perfectly with the 10 DMA
WLP Has to clear 70.00 the FTP and 10 DMA and hold today's low
TRIP 3 days under pivots. Has to hold today's low, clear the FTP at 43.08 and ideally, the 10 DMA at 43.83
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
LO Unconfirmed bullish phase and has to hold today's low
TLT Today's low is the 10 DMA which should hold
Category 4: (Rip Tide) Oversold (2 or more days under FTP), Condition 1-4, Needs to clear R1, Risk previous day low unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: N/A
Outperformed market and Good Phase: YELP Like to see it hold today's lwo and and clear 21.31 TWC78.00 max risk like to see 78.65 clear the FTP GNCHas to clear 37.58 and hold today's low
Shorts: Note: if I do not repeat a short we established an entry in-means I do not see a new entry with a good risk, but does not mean you should be out of the trade i.e. MCD INFY
Note: WFM and ROSTboth have potential slingshot patterns once again and negative pivots
Category 5:Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
DB Cannot clear 36.67
GOOG Only consider an OR high failure against R1 575.46
HLF Cannot clear 47.70
RRC OR high failure against 58.69 preferred
REGN a gap lower and would look to short. If comes in unchanged or better, than have to see what happens at 116.12
Category 6: White Cap-Having a 2-3 Day correction over the pivots. In a Negative Phase, Positive Pivots. Can sell an Opening Range High Failure if happens below R1 or previous day high whatever is higher and/or weakness if breaks S1 and prior day's lows
BAX 2 possibilities-it outperformed meaning it has more to go to upside. Or, it outperformed meaning it can drop harder than other names now oversold. Should not clear 52.26 and like to see it fail 51.05 S1
Goodnight!
