FED says it's a TWISTER! No Quantitative Easing, but then again, always leaving that door open. Where is the market now? Holding the 50 DMA, still approaching "irrational exuberance" and technically, a significant distribution day in volume in the S&P 500 only. I like where the market held today and best case would be some consolidation at these levels above the 50 DMA.
S&P 500 (SPY)134.90 the 50 DMA with Wednesday's low at the 70 EMA.Subs: Now negative pivots
Russell 2000 (IWM)78.14 the 50 DMA with some support at 77.85 as wellSubs: Pivots still positive
Dow (DIA) 127.25 the 50 DMA with support to 126.85. Subs: Pivots negative
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) 64.00 the 50 DMA but unless it breaks 63.15, will look at dips as buy opportunities. Actually closed up on the day so the volume is accumulation-contrast toSPY. Follow the leaders.Subs: Pivots slightly positive
ETFs:
GLD Last time FED did the twist, it was negative for commodities and gold in general
XLF (Financials) Anticipate this will take out the 50 DMA now if 14.20-30 continues to hold
IBB (Biotechnology) 2 interesting looking candles at the New all-time highs
SMH (Semiconductors) Over the 50 DMA and overbought
XRT (Retail) Getting closer still to the 50 DMA, but remains a first place to go if the market should rollover for a short
IYT (Transportation) Like to see some consolidation here-and started with an inside day on Wednesday
IYR* (Real Estate) Second inside day which could be a gift as it sits on the 50 DMA
USO (US Oil Fund) I still paid up to fill my gas tank-wuss up?
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Category 1:(Aloha) Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
FDO max risk now 70.81 and has to clear today's high which clears the FTP as well
Category 2:(Pipeline) Positive Phase, Condition 2-3, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: N/A
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
BIIB Narrow range day. Neutral pivots. Tight risk to today's low
ULTA Good range expansion and has to hold 94.58
PPG DOJI and slightly positive pivots. 103.72 the underlying 10 DMA
VRTX Back to condition 1. Has to hold 56.67 the 10 DMA
Category 4: (Rip Tide) Oversold (2 or more days under FTP), Condition 1-4, Needs to clear R1, Risk previous day low unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: N/A
Other: AXP now unconfirmed bullish phase has to hold today's low. Positive Pivots HOGNarrow range day with slightly negative pivots. Now, 49.20 max risk.TWC Bullish Phase. Negative pivots has to hold 78.18YELP 2 Inside days so over 21.36 if holds 20.67LULU Narrow range and inside day as long as today's low holds and clear today's high NFLX Head's up as this was the narrowest range day in 118 days. Negative Pivots IBM 2 DOJI days has to hold today's low. Negative Pivots
Shorts:
Category 5:Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
FTI Cannot cross 41.41
GD Cannot cross 65.17
GOOG Cannot clear 580.46
TCK Cannot clear 33.28
RRC Inside day and cannot clear 60.53
Category 6: White Cap-Having a 2-3 Day correction over the pivots. In a Negative Phase, Positive Pivots. Can sell an Opening Range High Failure if happens below R1 or previous day high whatever is higher and/or weakness if breaks S1 and prior day's lows
HLF 7 days above pivots. Inside day and now must break today's low to consider
REGN Narrow range day. Should not clear 116.55 and like to see it fail S1
NTAP Cannot clear today's high and like to see it break S1
Goodnight!