SPY had an inside day closing near the lower end of the range yet holding the 200 day moving average. The volume was light, typical of a Friday. Since the pivots are negative and we have closed beneath the FTP for three days, the simplest gauge is if it can open up above 127.26, hold Friday's low 126.62, the 200 day moving average at 126.52 and rally up to 129. That would be a great start. But it is also possible, that we will break 126.52 and drop down to the March low of 125.28 with the 50 weekly moving average low at 123.70.
QQQ also had an inside day, failed the 200 day moving average once again, but is still holding its 50 weekly moving average at 53.33. The weekly low in March was 53.77, last week low 53.62 and this week's low 53.64 so we are well into support. With the negative pivots and three days beneath, it could cross back over 54.60 and rally or it could break beneath the 50 weekly moving average in which case looking at the next support down around 52.
IWM continues to hold up the best closing down .7%, holding the 160 day exponential moving average and the 10 day moving average which is sloping up. Plus, of the three indexes, this has positive pivots. Therefore, above 80.05 would anticipate a rally to the 70 exponential moving average overhead at 81.22 but more importantly, would be a significant sign of strength. Otherwise, beneath 79, although it will still be well above the 200, at that point would anticipate it testing the 200 at 77.67 with recent low at 77.23. The other factor to throw into the mix is the slope of the overhead 50 day moving average which is still declining. That means, if we can get a run up to the FTP at 80.05 yet cannot penetrate, could be an early indication to sell strength with a tight risk.
ETF's:
SMH looks almost identical to QQQ.
IBB** had an inside day with positive pivots tomorrow. The slope on the 50 day remains positive. Therefore once again, this is my go to choice for strength. Over 103.34, have a good risk under Friday's low 102.68. Would anticipate a move to the 50 day moving average at 106.
XRT has neutral pivots and an upward sloping 50 day moving average. The 10 is beginning to cross above 70 day exponential moving average. Above 52.20, a good risk to Friday's low 51.86. Both IBB and XRT would not be the best short candidates even with market weakness.
IYR sold off last week with an upward sloping 50 day moving average. It also has two days under the FTP which comes in at 58.82. Considering it is holding above the 160 EMA and 200 DMA, should the market firm, this also could be a good candidate for a rally as it came really close to oversold on the near-term RSI.
XLE had a 30 minute opening range high failure on Friday with a bearish engulfing pattern. Now it is beginning to look oversold, but if it cannot get above 71.42, would not be surprised to see more downside at least to the 200 day moving average now at 69.50.
XLF continues to be range bound. 14.62 support and 15.20 resistance.
TLT using a tight stop after an entry at 97.22, got out on the close at 97.07 since it broke S1.
SLV we held our short position and continue to look for the target of 32.
GLD for the first time since February closed beneath the 50 day moving average but, the slope remains positive and it is oversold. Plus, it held 70 exponential now at 145.75. If it can cross 146.75, it still has a way to go back up to the 50 day moving average at 148. At this point, it is in a weak warning phase.
Picks: Over the last couple weeks we've had both longs and shorts, some with huge profits such as BIIB, CMG on the long side and GS, SLV, CME, WLL, on the short side. Plus, we've had a bunch of short-term trades catching the volatility, using the reference points and our rules to time our way in, and exiting at the crest of the waves down and up. Most importantly, we bought the stronger sector and groups and sold the weaker ones. We had a couple of losses, but with controlled risks and discipline, they were minor. Going into next week, more of the same.
I will be particularly selective with the recommendations. I use a combination of the following: the overall trend or the phase of the market, the phase of individual groups and sectors, and then within specific stocks, the moving averages and how they are stacked and sloped, same with the pivots, the volume indicators and 2-Day RSI. Then, using Hotscans and the opening range, we fine-tune even further as far as entries, stops, and targets.
OVTI*some of you may have bought this on the opening range reversal last Friday. And since it closed above the prior day high, it was worthwhile to take home for a mini swing or swing position to the 50 day moving average which is overhead and still sloping up. Now, the pivots are positive. Above 31.07 can risk to under Friday's low 30.70. If you can get above 31.45, looking at overhead resistance at 32.75. And possibly, beyond. Day to swing
CRM continuing to hold both moving averages with positive pivots tomorrow. Over 143.31, although it has to clear Friday's hi 145.60, should continue provided the market stays firm, up to the projected target at 151.50. Needs to hold 140.70. Can also look to buy this on an opening range reversal. Day to mini.
WYNN**never gave us a reason to enter last Friday since it didn't have an opening range reversal. Now, with three days under the floor trader pivot which is stacked positive, will be one of my main focuses over 131.58 the FTP and a tight stop under Friday's low 130.22. Looking for a move up to test the upward sloping 50 day moving average at 141.26. Day to mini
INTU*had an inside day and outperformed the market. Although the slope on the 50 day moving average is down, it is way overhead. What interests me more is the fact that it held the 200 DMA, the 160 EMA and now the 10 day moving average. Good wall of support at 50. Furthermore, the pivots are positive. Can use 50.44 where the FTP is, but must clear Friday's hi and R1 which line up very close at 50.74. Then, it is entirely possible if we can get above 51, we could see a move up to test 50 day moving average at 53.20. Day to mini.
TSLA**we took money out of this stock a couple of weeks ago. Now, see a possible reentry. The slope on the 50 day moving average is up and the pivots are positive. Over 27.55 can risk to Friday's low 27.26. If the market stays firm would stay in for a test of recent high 31.50 and possibly beyond. Day to swing.
NFLX**had an inside day and a DOJI. It is above the moving averages which are sloped up. The pivots are positive. 257 is pivotal with the FTP at 257.18. Have a really good risk to Friday's low at 254.09 or the 10 day moving average at 253.11. Could buy strength or an opening range reversal depending on how it opens. All-time high was made in early June 277.70, now a reasonable target. However, this is one that could easily continue to move up and onto new highs. Day to swing.
BEAV**one of those stocks that I have found difficult to stay with for swing, but it does seem that it wants to go onto new highs since it's holding up, has a great stack and slope of the moving averages and on Friday had a DOJI day. 38.95 is pivotal, the FTP is positive and comes in at 38.86. If this clears 39.50, we could be looking at a move to around 47. Can use the 10 day moving average at 38.14 for risk or last week's low 37.80 for a bit of room. Day to swing.
Hon. mention: AMZN which closed strong compared to the rest of the market. Now it must clear 195.20 to continue the move up. And since the pivots are positive can look at a move above 192.94 and risk to Friday's low 191.35. YOKU-sometimes I like to include a wild pick to buy on weakness. Has only two days under the FTP, which is negative, so it must cross and stay above 27.85. But I am putting this on the list because when it first started trading back in December, the low that week was 25.57, last week's low was 26 and once it clears 29.30, we could see a run to 40. A tighter risk would be Friday's low 27.05. Day to mini.
Shorts:
COL**under the 50 weekly moving average, the 200 and 50 day moving averages, with a negative stack on the floor trader pivot. 60.24 should be resistance if the market opens weak. If not, can look at resistance near Friday's hi at 60.65 and under R1 60.60. Then if it fails 59.83 S1, could easily drop down to the 200 weekly moving average now at 54.40. Day to swing.
IOC*signaled short on Friday, with negative pivots. If it cannot get back above 52.75 and breaks Friday's low 52.03, could have a lot more downside with an initial target 47.30. Day to swing
AGU** broke down at the end of the day on Friday and interestingly has positive pivots. That means that if it cannot get above 83.98, can use Friday's hi at 85.12 as a risk to see if it can continue lower to near-term support at 78. Under 78 a possible dramatic move down 200 weekly moving average now at 64. Day to swing.
MET**beneath the 50 and 200 weekly moving averages, the daily moving averages and could be approaching a death cross. With negative pivots, can sell beneath 41 with a risk to Friday's hi 41.35 and if it breaks beneath 40.66 S1, has next support at June 15 low 39.13 and on the weekly chart better support at 35. Day to swing.
Hon. mention: BTU which had a death cross, failed at the 50 weekly moving average at 57.77 but has positive pivots. Therefore if it fails 57.22 can risk to Friday's hi 57.88 and if it continues beneath Friday's low 56.77 can quickly drop down to support at 55.20 where the 10 day moving average is with better support at 52.44 and then 47.75
Have a great Sunday!