SPY closed up .9% and rallied a little bit more immediately after the market closed based on good earnings at Nike. But, volume was extremely light and I anticipate it will stay that way ahead of the holiday weekend. Looking strictly at price action, it closed above the 10 day moving average yet not above the 160 day exponential moving average or Friday's hi at 128.37. It did however hold and respect the 200 day moving average. The slope on the 50 day moving average continues to decline.
QQQ closed up 1.6% above the 200 day moving average on very light volume and beneath the 160 exponential moving average at last week's high.
IWM appears in a new consolidation pattern at higher levels. Will continue to look at this index for a lead which means it must get above 81.11 last week's high and then I would anticipate a move up to the 50 day moving average at 82.14.
Although we are not likely to see any huge volume coming into the market this week, I would like to see the slope on the 50 day moving averages in all of the indexes at least neutralize before I get extremely excited about this rally. At this point, we have held critical support and are heading into extremely significant resistance with warning phases intact and continuing to accelerate.
ETF's:
SMH consolidating around the 200 day moving average, closing basically right on it. Will look at 32.85 as pivotal and a move above 33.50 very positive.
IBB did what it needed to do and closed above the exponential moving average and key pivots; now needs to clear last week's high 104.29 to keep on going. Overhead resistance at the 50 day moving average 106.02. Otherwise, major support now 103.
XRT** held 10 day moving average and remains in consolidation with a move over last week's hi 52.87 a good indication of not only a move higher but possibly onto new highs should the markets stay firm and earnings positive. Otherwise, must hold 51.30
IYR did not follow the rest of the market %agewise, has to clear 59.50 and has resistance all the way up with a gap to fill to 60.38. Beneath 58, see this as a sign of weakness.
XLE underperformed and remains above the 200 with a continuing decline in the 50 day moving average overhead.
XLF continues to be range bound. 14.62 support and 15.20 resistance.
SLV covered our puts today booking over $3.00
GLD oversold. Now in a confirmed warning phase. Slope on the 50 day remains positive. Now needs to clear 146.36 for a possible rally back up to 148.
FXI took a long position anticipating a move up to fill the gap to 43.06.
See any reason to change the strategy of buying biotechnology and retail on strength and selling energy, financials, semiconductors and possibly real estate on weakness.
Picks: Got good follow through on some of the long positions from last week and on some of the recommended ones from today such as WYNN, AMZN, CRM, BEAV, INTU and NFLX. On the short side we began this morning selling BTU on the opening range breakdown, covered quickly and instead soldCOL on the opening range high failure. I continue to use trailing stops to protect profits and lighten when we catch momentum. One note is that if I write that something is good for swing and you wish to swing trade it, feel free to ask me about trailing stops and targets, but I am very careful to only recommend a swing trade if I see the possibility of a move beyond three ATR's. GMCR and BIIB are perfect examples. At this point, I am not recommending any longs that do not have positive pivots or an upward sloping 50 day moving average and vice versa for recommended shorts unless I note it is an exception.
OVTI* underperformed today but gave no reason to be stopped out if established a position last week. Now, provided it holds above 30.07, a move above Friday's hi 31.45 and should continue up to the 50 day moving average overhead 32.75 and possibly, beyond. Day to swing
BEAV**still has to clear all-time high of 40.81. This as well as all of the recommendations from Friday that worked out today can be watched for buys on opening range reversal's as all the pivots are positive. But at this point, would be hesitant to chase strength. Day to swing.
ACN*will have a breakaway gap after earnings provided it opens up above 58.21 the old high. Can use a two minute opening range fade or follow and set it up for an opening range reversal as well. Based on recent consolidation, could see a move as high as 67. As with all breakaway gaps, to control risk use low of the day otherwise, one can never tell how far down it can go before finding support. Day to swing.
GRA*inside day and closed just above an inclining 50 day moving average at 43.20. The 70 day exponential moving average is good underlying support at 41.73. With positive pivots, if it holds 42.90 can also use today's low 42.13 as a short term risk. If this can clear Friday's hi at 43.44, has resistance at 44.67 and better resistance up around 45.60. All-time high 47.02. Day to swing.
ADS*inside day and above 50 day moving average at 90.30 which is sloping up. Support at today's low at 89.10 but can the floor trader pivot which comes in tomorrow at 90.77. Doesn't have a tremendous amount of volume so is thin. If it can get through 93.08, next resistance at 97 which is also all-time high. Day to swing.
NVLS**still beneath the 50 which is now sloping up. Had a bullish engulfing pattern. Good support at the 10 day moving average at 33.79. With positive pivots can buy against 34.25 and use the 10 day moving average as a risk and if it can clear 34.70 it not only clears the 50 day moving average but also R1. On the weekly chart has a beautiful trendline coming down from all-time high which will cross with a weekly close above 36. All-time high was made in March 41.82. Day to swing.
IBM**after an inside day last Friday had good follow through and closed above the trend line that goes back from the highs plus the 50 day moving average which crosses at 167.43. The FTP is at 167 now a good area to buy against with a stop under today's low 165.21. Otherwise, watch for an opening range reversal as it now has the possibility of continuing up to all-time highs made in May at 173.48. Day to swing
YOKU putting this back on the list because it is now not only oversold, but held Friday's low at 27.05 with a low of 27.06 which gives us a very clear wall of support. Plus had an inside day. Now that it has three days under the floor trader pivot, I would like it to clear 27.58, in which case can buy half a position that corresponds with an opening range breakout but, must also clear 28.10 where R1 is and ultimately Friday's hi at 28.59. Then, we could see a pop to 35 fairly quickly. Day to mini.
Shorts:
COL**Shorted this at the end of the day on a 30 minute opening range high failure. With pivots still negative, a break of 59.85 and anticipate a move down to the 200 weekly moving average now at 54.40. Otherwise, will have stop at 60.23. Day to swing.
IOC*Now good resistance at 53.03 with negative pivots. If breaks Friday's low 52.03, could have a lot more downside with an initial target 47.30. Day to swing
BTU**Had an opening range high failure at the end of the day after its death cross last week. Now, pivots are negative. Under 56.45 can use today's high 57.04 as a risk. Can quickly drop down to support at 55.53 where the 10 day moving average is with better support at 52.44 and then 47.75 Day to Swing
Goodnight!