One thing I'm happy to be wrong about is the decreasing volume as we get closer to the holiday weekend. SPY closed up .9% with an accumulation day in volume. The other big news is that the slope on the 50 day moving average has now gone neutral which puts this back into a weak warning phase. Plus, we busted out of the recent consolidation closing above 129.75 the adaptive moving average. Now we are looking at 131.40 as the next resistance with the 50 day moving average overhead at 131.90. This is assuming that we hold 129.75. If there is any doubt how important the 200 day moving averages is as long term support, this bounce off of the 200 should quell the cynics.

QQQ closed up .4% also with an accumulation day in volume and a neutral slope on the 50 day moving average. It still has to get through 56.47 and then the 50 day moving average overhead at 56.97.

IWM closed above the 50 day moving average going into an unconfirmed bullish phase. Now, 80.74 is the important support to hold and a second close above 82.11 confirms a bullish phase. Of course anything can happen in the next couple of days, but the very best scenario would be some digestion that doesn't necessarily affect the slope of the 50 day moving average.

ETF's:

SMH still in consolidation with the 200 day moving average now support at 32.92. Also still underperforming the overall market. Unless it takes out 33.50 on the upside, see semiconductors as vulnerable and one of the very first places to go for a short should the market begin to roll over.

IBB this is one I have been tracking carefully and tweeted about two days ago to buy over 104.03. Now, it confirmed into a bullish phase closing at 106.44. The 50 day moving average comes in at 106.10 now the area to hold. See no reason why this cannot continue at least up to test the all time high at 110 made in mid May.

XRT I also tweeted about an entry yesterday over 52.50. I have been writing that this might be the first one to go and test the old high and possibly onto new highs. At this point, although I would like to see some digestion, it does appear to be a highly possible scenario.

IYR did not quite fill the gap up to 60.38 with today's highs 60.32. Now, with the positive sloping 50 day moving average, above 60.38 needs to clear the 50 day moving average at 60.66, but once it does should also continue higher with the next overhead resistance up at 61.50.

XLF finally broke through the top of its recent range. Once again, tweeted about follow-through should it break 15.20. Although it is still in a bearish phase, would not be surprised to see this rally up to the 50 day moving average at 15.56 with the possibility of a rally to the 200 day moving average at 15.68. Of course, must hold now around 15.15.

OIH great follow through from yesterday although it did not close above the 50 day moving average at 149.94 which is still sloping down. Therefore, I would not be looking to buy this until it comes back down to around 147 and has some level of digestion and consolidation. This is still in a strong warning phase.

GLD got long yesterday at 146.08 in anticipation of a move to 148.10.

SLV** I was very public about the options trade when I bought July 36 puts and when I covered them at 32.50. Now, it is possible that we have an island bottom in place from Monday and Tuesday's price action and today's higher open. Although the slope on the 50 day moving average is still pointing down, it held the 160 day exponential moving average and now through 34.09, could continue up to test the 70 day exponential moving average at 35.47.

Picks: Five out of the six long pics from last night all worked out well. AMZN and HSY were buys on opening range breakouts, whereas MA, RKT, and SWK were buys on opening range reversals. Typically, I recommend using one third of an ATR risk on opening range reversal's, which kept you in everything except MA. Unless you were keeping a stop to below S1, you might have gotten stopped out and missed the extraordinary rally that happened at the and the day. That is why it is so important to determine before you put on a trade whether it is a day, mini, or swing trade and place your stop accordingly. Then, it is equally important to manage the trade setting trailing stops and profit targets according to your trading parameters. The Picks tonight continue to have manageable risks for entry so close to a holiday and great potential should the market continue to rally after the weekend.

UNH** the only pic from last night that did not have either an opening range reversal or breakout. It held and tested the 10 day moving average today 51.08 right on the open. Plus, it had an inside day. Now if it holds 51.08 and stays above the FTP which is slightly negatively stacked at 51.50, through today's high 51.88 should continue the move up. Multiyear high was made last week at 52.64. All-time high is back in 2005 at 64.61. On the weekly chart 50 should hold. Day to swing

AET*had an inside day today and is holding above all of the moving averages. The FTP is positive coming in at 44.62. Can buy on an opening range reversal using S1 at 44.36 as a stop, or above today's high 44.88 with the same risk. Multiyear high was made in May 46.01. Above that some resistance at 47.54 but if the market stays firm, all-time high was made in 2007 at 60. Day to swing

CRM*inside day. Those who bought this for swing trade down at around 139 are still long. Now, if it holds above 145.03 and takes out the negatively stacked FTP at 146.31, could easily continue the rally with a target of 152.25 and possibly beyond. Day to swing

JAH*had an inside day and is above both the 10 simple moving average and 70 exponential moving average. Does have the 50 day moving average which is sloping down overhead at 34.27. But, with positive pivots, could buy if it holds 33.93 and risk to today's low 33.74 or even better, the 10 day moving average at 33.67. If this clears the 10 day moving average, has the potential to go up to recent high 34.85 and if the market stays firm, the high that was made in April at 37.50. All time high was made back in 2007 at 45.09. Day to swing

NFLX had an opening range reversal but never really went anywhere. Since the overall chart pattern is still very strong, and it has positive pivots, buy over 265.56 and risk to today's low 263. Once this clears today's high at 268.74, all-time high is at 277.70 and could continue to move up. Day to mini.

NVLS** had a DOJI day after its big move yesterday off of the opening range reversal and breakout. Pivots are positive. Over 35, can risk to today's low 34.69. Setting up possibly for a trendline breakout with a weekly close above 35.90. If that is the case we are looking at 41.82 the high from March and after that last swing high was made in 2003 at 45.50. Day to swing

VMW this stock loves to Spike. Did so yesterday, then sold off but held S1 today. Pivots are negative so must clear 96.81 with a good risk down to today's low 95.90. The 10 day moving average crossed above the 50 today, so if this can get going again should see a move up to 102.50 with recent high at 102.74. All time high was made in 2007 at 125.25. Day to swing.

ANF we caught this one for a swing back in March. Now, it is consolidating above both the 10 DMA and the 70 EMA. Pivots are positive and provided it holds 87.28, have good risk down to today's low 66.59 with the 10 day moving average below that at 66.07. Above 67.98 R1, takes out today's high. Then, if it can clear 68.74, has the 50 day moving average overhead at 70.73. Over that, with a good market, next resistance at 73.30. Day to mini.

Shorts: I do not see any strong short setups at this time nor would I recommend holding any new short positions over the long weekend.

Note: No Evening Watch Thursday Night-next one for Tuesday.

Have a wonderful long weekend.

Goodnight!