QQQ ended up 1.5% and as expected, with lighter volume than yesterday. It got through 55.50 with the next resistance up at the lows made on May 25 at 56.47 and beyond that the 50 day moving average at 56.97. I still find the declining slope on the 50 day moving average troubling. Now, 55.50 represents the top of the recent consolidation, but it is 55 where the 200 day moving average is that is the most important area of support.
SPY closed right below the adaptive moving average at 129.62. It also had light volume. What is interesting is that even with the last two days of incredible moves to the upside, SPY has not gotten through the top of its recent trading range and area of consolidation. A break above 130 should take it to 131.50 with the declining 50 day moving average just overhead at 131.90. It is quite possible that, given the upcoming long weekend, we do not get through 130 and instead, go back down to test support at 128. Unless something unusual happens, it does seem unlikely that we will return down to the 200 day moving average at 126.68 in the next couple of days.
It would be healthy to see some digestion in the current trading range over the next couple of days.
IWM 82.11 is the overhead 50 day moving average which also continues to decline. This index still looks the strongest out of the three with 80.35 and better support at the 79.70 area.
It is easy to forget that all of the indexes are still in a strong warning phase but that hasn't stopped us from catching some big moves like AMZN which we exited today with a $13.00 profit or YOKU which we entered for a day trade at 30.60 and took profits along the way at 32, then 35, exiting the balance at 37.25.
ETF's:
SMH still an area of consolidation around 200 day moving average. Also still underperforming the overall market. Today's low touched the 200 day moving average at 32.89, but unless it takes out 33.50 on the upside, still see semiconductors as vulnerable and one of the very first places to go for a short should the market begin to roll over.
IBB as expected, a great performer to the upside. Once it took out 104.03 yesterday, it started to look good and then over 104.30 today it got enough momentum to get up to the 50 day moving average at 106.07 closing just on it giving us an unconfirmed return to a bullish phase.
XRT also did what was expected by confirming into a bullish phase taking out 52.87 the recent high. Now, will watch to see if it can hold above the 50 day moving average at 52.31. With both IBB and XRT, will look to those as indications of whether we will continue higher or digest and find support at lower levels.
IYR slope of the 50 day moving average has now pointed back up even if the price remains well below. Once it gets above 59.80, imagine that it will have momentum to get up to the 50 day moving average 60.64. Otherwise, it must hold 58.00 for it could very easily begin to drag down the rest of the market should it break that area.
XLF is in a bearish phase and continues to be range bound. 14.62 support and 15.20 resistance.
OIH was a big performer today crossing back over the 200 day moving average and closing above the adaptive moving average at 146.82. The 50 day moving average overhead at 150.05 at this point remains significant resistance, yet today was the first indication that perhaps we have seen the lows in the oil and energy sectors.
GLD** we bought call spreads in anticipation that this will rally up to 50 day moving average at 148.10 by the end of the week.
Picks: With such huge moves over the last couple of days, I would like to see consolidation and digestion with short-term trading patterns in the stocks that have made or are close to making new highs. My list is comprised only of those that have yet to make a move equal to the overall market and are set up well on both the long and the short side. Any of the recommended picks that you have put on for swing NVLS ADS BEAV GRA IBM etc, continue to manage by locking in profits when you get three ATR's and trailing up stops.
RKT had an inside day holding the 10 day moving average at 63.68 yet under the 160 day exponential moving average at 64.67. Although it has a declining slope on the 50 day moving average, it is way overhead. The floor trader pivot is positive tomorrow coming at 64.29. I might consider a 1/2 a position over the FTP with a stop under today's low and the 10 DMA and add over R1 at 64.82 which clears the 160 EMA.
Overhead resistance at 67.90 the 70 EMA. Day to minswing
SWK* With three days under the FTP, had an inside day today and is holding the 10 DMA at 69.21 but is under the 160 EMA at 69.76. FTP is stacked negative tomorrow so must clear 69.71 and then 69.95. Today's low 69.48 is a tighter risk for daytrading. Through 71.12 could see a rally to 72.22 where the declining 50 DMA is. The weekly chart is still in an upward trend so it is possible to see a move to 75. Day to mini
HSY**The 10 MA is about to cross back over the 50 DMA. has a gap to 56.76, but through the gap can see this go to the highs made in April at 58.20 and beyond. Next overhead resistance at 60 and all time high made in 2005 at 67.37. Since approaching overbought, look for an OR reversal against 55.90 area. Pivots are positive coming in at 56.43. Will watch to see how this opens to see if an OR reversal is reasonable. Day to swing
AMZN Got out of the swing-but closed right at the gap. Had a narrow range today and can still go to 208. So, if can buy and risk only to today's low 200.60, may see another daytrade or perhaps minsiwng trade from here-Swing traders would be holding out for new highs. FTP comes in at 201.94-also watch for an opening range reversal. Day to maybe swing.
MA* Broke from consolidation at 277.75. With the FTP at 277.07, provided it holds above 277.75, have a tight risk to see if can get more follow through as overall chart shows the possiblility of a move to the highs at 288.57 and with a great market possibly higher. Day to swing
UNH filled its gap to 51.72 and closed beyond. Now, if holds above 51.60 where the FTP is, multiyear high was made last week at 52.64. All-time high is back in 2005 at 64.61. On the weekly chart 50 should hold.Day to swing.
Shorts:
GRMN Broke the 200 DMA and had an inside day. If it fails the 50 weekly moving average at 31.69, it also breaks the negatively stacked FTP at 31.82. Risk is to the 200 DMA at 32.24. Support at 30 and then 26.50 level. Day to swing
FLS* 107.09 is now good resistance over the last 4 trading days since it gapped lower on June 23rd. If it cannot get through that area, and it fails FTP at 106.14 would take a shot at the short side. Under today's low 104.95 should continue down to recent low made on June 16, at 99.20. Weekly chart shows underlying support at the 200 weekly moving average at 95.99 Day to swing
WHR** Waited for a move to resistance. Now, on June 3rd this gapped lower with a high that day of 79.81. Today's high is 79.96 but closed lower at 79.34. As long as this does not trade above 80.05, the gap will hold and we have a great stop for a short provided it fails the FTP at 78.85. Stil has to break the 10 DMA underneath at 76.87, but that is less of a concern should this fail at these levels. 72.72 is the 200 weekly moving average. Below that and can drop to 71.00 and beyond. Day to swing
Goodnight!