SPY: Big volume down day that broke below a very significant daily wedge pattern and multi-week lows. The market has been choppy of the last several weeks and options expire today so it could be choppy, but this is a very negative breakdown. Support could come in at the 50-day MA (120.70) and at prior daily lows around 119.20. Look for resistance at the FTP (122.49) and R1 (123.74). If the downside continues the bears are back in control.
QQQ: Closed below the 50-day MA. A second close below the 50-day would confirm a bear phase, but the slope is still positive and the SPY, DIA and IWM are all still above their 50-day MA. It also closed below its multi-week consolidation on big volume, so this is a very negative breakdown. If the market continues lower, trade from the short side. The most interesting support area is a gap to be filled at 54.66 which is just above S2 at 58.58. Look for resistance at 56.15 which is the FTP, the 50-day MA, and prior daily swing lows! The 200-day is 56.43 and the R1 is 56.80. Both could be resistance point to look for reversals.
ETFs:
GLD: Had its worst down day and biggest volume in months and sits right on the 50-day MA. Wait for a pattern, or look to sell strength.
SLV: Like GLD it had its worst down day and biggest volume in months, but it's in a bear phase so even weaker than GLD. The 30.00 level, however is not far now and could be support.
XRT: Held up better than the markets, at the bottom of the multi-week range, and near the 200-day MA at 50.73. This is the area to watch for long set up or a breakdown.
SMH: Still the one to watch for the bulls. It broke its multi week lows but closed above the multi-week low levels. Thursday's low (30.34) is the key level to watch now on the downside. The upside is still range bound.
OIH: Broke down below an important daily wedge, but its sitting in a support area. Thursday's low (123.12) is the key level on the down side. Could be a good candidate for OR reversal short if it rallies.
Longs: The market indexes were and remain in a very weak position relative to recent week's price action. Weakness can be expected to continue if the intra-day action continues lower. However, this is a very news driven market and good news could create "bottom of the range" buying and create a day for trading good stocks on the long side.
PANL: Pivots will be negative but its daily pattern is still intact. If the market firms day and mini-swing traders could look to probe over the FTP of 51.22. Day to Mini
TLT: Broke the multi-week high of 119.49, but did not close above it. A breakout could lead to new highs over 125. With good support around 118.40 based on daily highs and S1 it is a good reversal and breakout candidate. Pivots are positively stacked. Day to Swing
EQIX: Has been pushing higher but held back by weak market action. Pivots are positive. 100.70 area could be resistance so look for long OR reversals over S1 (98.33) or wait for it to clear 100.70. Day to swing
AAP: An inside day, in a nice daily flag down to the 10-day MA and pivots are positively stacked. Long OR reversal over S1 (67.10) or breakouts over Thursday's high of 67.80
These have daily patterns that have held up, but should clear their FTP before an entry.
RAX
FTI
GWW
PNRA
Shorts: Thursday could have been the first day of a significant breakdown or a big head fake it markets reverse on Friday. Look for OR reversal if the market rallies, but if market is weak 5 min break downs could happen quickly.
WYNN: Thursday's very big volume could indicate a bottom, but if it breaks Thursday's low that volume could lead to a big drop so this low, 119.73, is key. OR reversals below R1 (124.05), and breakdowns below the FTP 121.61. Day to Mini
BID: Broke down and closed below multi-week range. Short as long as below 31. Day to Swing
SINA: Is in a steady daily down trend over the last several weeks. Thursday's break down was a hard break from a bear flag, but may be approaching support in the 72 - 71.50 area. Prefer an OR Reversal below resistance level of 76.70.
FOSL: Very tight daily consolidation on the bearish side of the 50-day MA in a bearish phase. I could break hard if it breaks Thursday's low of 88.97. OR Reversals also a consideration under R1 (92.19), but for swing trades would like to see close below 88.97. Day to Swing
These have been very weak and should wait for strength to sell - OR Reversals
WHR
GS
Trade with discipline,
Geoff Bysshe
