Do I think that the good news from our manufacturing sector expanding had anything to do with today's rally in the last 30 minutes? No. But, I would like to point out a couple of tidbits I tweeted today. One is that Nasdaq held the August low and two is that so did XLK even after the selloff in AAPL. Volume and candle patterns are good; we need a higher close with good volume by week's end. Index analysis below.
SPY Nice spike in volume with an Accumulation day, back through the August low, but unlike 2 other indexes, did not produce a bullish engulfing pattern. Back through the 200 weekly moving average starts to get impressive. But for now, a short covering rally with decent but not know your socks off volume. Like to see 110.25 area hold. Subs-R1 114.12
DIA Tried to fail the 200 weekly moving average and the August low, but closed above with good volume yet no bullish engulfing pattern. 105.70 area now support, must now clear 111.
QQQ Did its job holding August low. Bullish engulfing pattern and good volume. Last night wrote "Only a move above 52.30 would look encouraging for the now former leading stocks." Would be nice.
IWM Through 65.20 very encouraging after the bullish candle. Looking back at July 2010, spiked lower, had a bullish candle with good volume and never took out the low of the spike. It took a couple of days to digest and then off it went.
ETFs:
GLD Beautiful 4.00 short under Monday low, which we caught by shorting SLV instead. Covered with the end of day strength. Bounced 3rd times off of the 160 EMA. Now, no opinion rather, waiting to see which way new range 155-162 breaks.
XLK* (Technology) Held the 80 month moving average Now, with long term positive trend still intact, watching to see if it can continue to lead the charge. 24.00 the adaptive moving average.
SMH (Semiconductors) Unlike XLK, broke the 80 monthly MA but held the 200 weekly and August low. Now, 28.50 resistance with a 3 month low at 25.78.
IBB (Biotechnology) Under 93.50 is where this fell apart. But, longer term trend still positive.
XLE (Energy) Bullish engulfing pattern with spike in volume. Overhead resistance at 60.00. Want to see 57.00 hold.
TLT (The 20 year Treasuries) soared again. 123.15 old high failed today with a distribution day in volume. Subs-pivots positive so needs to hold today's low or start to look at TBT.
Longs: Late day rally got us in XLK November calls at 1.29 to see if can get more upside this week. Not a buy and hold, rather miniswing. F calls came back. Otherwise, had nearly a full 1.5 ATR trade in TZOOtoday which I bought against the previous day low and 200 weekly moving average with oversold conditions. Many possible setups so choosing only a few with honorable mentions. Try to narrow your focus.
RAI Did not clear pivots till the end of the day, which are still negatively stacked at 37.49. Had a bullish engulfing pattern today, and cleared Monday's high after an inside day. Now, R1 38.28 to clear with next overhead resistance 39.87 recent high. .80 ATR so requires patience for a swing trade. Day to Swing
PANL Convergence of the 50 and 200 DMA and the 160 EMA. Ultimate swing risk under 40.63. Negative pivots at 43.00 so must clear R1 45.35. With most of these picks, so much depends on how the market opens and whether the indexes clear R1-none of which did today. Day to swing
ORLY Long term trend still positive and holding a positively sloped 50 DMA at 64.24. Cleared R1 and now has positive pivots at 66.13 where R1 was today. The 10 DMA at 68.05 next resistance. Good candidate for OR reversal. Day to mini
VMW Positive pivots at 80.36 and on list since it held August lows. Like so many other stocks, has overhead resistance, but another one to look at if market finds bottom. More about risk then target. Ultimate swing risk 76.70, minswing risk 78.80. A candidate for OR reversal buy. Day to swing
JOYG Back above the 200 weekly MA at 59.24 and never broke the 80 month MA. Pivots negative so like to see hold 60.34 to control risk. Also must clear R1 63.20 to stick for swing. Day to swing
Honorable Mention: OR Reversal VFC OXY FDO CTXS PXD. Have negative pivots which should hold, held the 80 monthly meaning long term trend intact and must clear R1-WLT (R1 at 59.76) AMZN(R1 216.84) HLF (R1 51.00) CL (R1 89.21) CELG (R1 62.08) GOOG (R1 509.25) IBM (R1 176.91)
Shorts: With stocks under the 200 DMA and today's momentum shift, would like to see 2-3 days over the pivots and then a failure of S1 before new entries.
WAG Under the 200 weekly at 34.10 negative pivots at 32.44. Unless it clears R1 33.27 could see move to 30.50 next support. Day to mini
CHRW Negative pivots at 66.92. Must not clear R1 at 68.93. Channel support from August lows which at this point unclear if major support or another top forming. Day to mini
Goodnight!
