How can one argue with new highs in S&P 500 even on a slow, low volume doji day? How can one argue with NASDAQ holding the fast moving average? Although Russell 2000 did not clear 2012 high, it is really, really close. Even the most experienced traders have to remember that a dull market does not mean the end of days. FED speak tomorrow-that could bring some excitement. It was a year ago they announced Operation Twist. It's been a year of QE3 rumors. Market is on 4-year highs. Not sure why FED would ease-but then again, my job is to trade what I see. Been in a bull trend. Until that changes, no reason to stop buying corrections.
S&P 500 (SPY) Always have to be prepared for anything, but looks pretty explosive from here.
Russell 2000 (IWM) Suspect this could gap above 84.66, the 2012 high from March. Question will be where it closes
Dow (DIA) Not overbought at all.
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) See this as the best opportunity right now if holds the fast moving average-been correcting with AAPL and has lots of room. Subs: Over 68.89 clears R1
ETFs:
GLD As long as 167.23 holds, the gap low, this recent consolidation could be another jumping off point
XLF (Financials) 16.01 2012 high
IBB (Biotechnology) Subs: now correction like a condition 1, therefore, if holds the fast moving average, and takes out today's high , back to looking at this group
SMH (Semiconductors) Closed shy of the 200 DMA. Probably needs to clear 33 now or could see 32.25 the 50 DMA
XRT (Retail) Strong like bull
IYT (Transportation) confirmed phase change back to accumulation. Subs: Mind that wedge I showed you on the video.
IYR (Real Estate) Subs: 66.68 and off this should go. 68 first real resistance
USO (US Oil Fund) Under 35.00 and over 36.70 breaks the recent range one way or another
OIH (Oil Services) Interesting that the monthly trend is still negative with overhead resistance at 44.
XLE (Energy) 76.50 the 2012 high
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Filled the gap ad left a new one. From island top to island bottom if confirms
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly.
Category 1: (Aloha) Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
TSCO 98.40 the 10 DMA to hold. 98.65 the pivots to clear. 101.20 is 2012 high
ONXX 75 is the 10 DMA to hold. R1 and today's high line up
Category 2: (Pipeline) Positive Phase, Condition 2-3, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
MDVN Now needs to clear 103.50
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
FIRE Inside day. 54.75 the 10 DMA support. Like to see it clear 55.55 then today's high which lines up with R1. Right now, last week's high is resistance
UA 58.70 the 10 DMA and number to hold
SLG 81.48 now should hold. Over 82.60 has room
COF Improved to condition 1-has to hold today's low. 58.69 the 2012 high
BXP Inside day and correcting, slightly positive pivots with today's low max risk. Should clear today's high and R1
SLB Narrowest range in 201 days after gap higher. 74.05 good risk. 75.68 recent swing high to clear with 80.78 the 2012 high
Z Support at today's low. Today's high, R1 and the 10 DMA all line up-would wait for that area to clear and risk 40.36
DVA Improved to bullish phase. Has to hold today's low. 98.55 is the 10 DMA to clear
SWI 57.55 max risk. Now like to see it clear today's high
EXPE 52.80 the 10 DMA should hold. Recent high or around 58.50 good target
SHW Consolidating. Over 144.65 area, should see another leg up for miniswing
TROW 63.06 should hold. 63.40 area is pivotal and over 64.00 the 2012 high is 66.00
Phase Change: CHRW 57.82 needs to clear and 56.96 needs to hold BWA confirmed phase change to accumulation. Now, 73.00 area should hold
Shorts:
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
CSTR OR high failure now preferred against 52.85
CLF Failed at the 50 DMA and cannot clear today's high. 37.30 underlying support at the 10 DMA
ROSE 2 inside days. Cannot clear today's high. 45.06 the 200 DMA first support
Category 6: White Cap-Having a 2-3 Day correction over the pivots. In a Negative Phase, Positive Pivots. Can sell an Opening Range High Failure if happens below R1 or previous day high whatever is higher and/or weakness if breaks S1 and prior day's lows
UPS 4 days up over pivots so has to break S1 and today's low not clear today's high
DB Another brick wall with very high weekly RSI. If market sells off, under 41.96 S1, this could see drop to 39.26 the 200 DMA first support
Bye for Now!