SPY This rally pre FED meeting was completely in line with the expectations I wrote about on Monday evening. Question now is how much more? After all, looking at the big picture, this is still a low volume (Accumulation day in volume today -now 3 total) bounce in a bear market with only the QQQ now looking at an unconfirmed phase change to recovery. It is typical to see melt ups like we saw today in bear markets. Had a target of 120.34 which was surpassed before late sell off from highs. 120.94 last week's high. 117 support to hold.
DIA Took out R1, filled the gap. Still in the trading range from early August and in bear phase.
QQQ Now second accumulation day in volume this week although still below daily average. Closed marginally above the negatively sloped 50 DMA which makes this an unconfirmed and relatively weak recovery phase. Did not close above the 50 weekly moving average at 55.50. And, reached the top of the trading range established in early August. Not quite overbought so could see more upside, but at this point do not see that as a high percentage long from here. Must hold 54.00
IWM (Comment from last night still stands) A trading range has been established between 64.50 and 74.00. The really patient could wait for the range to break before establishing any longer term position. For now, anticipation is for a test of the top of the range provided it holds above 68.00 on a closing basis
ETFs:
GLD Tried all day to break down but held on to prior day's lows. Subs-through 177.95 looks compelling. Would not look to short if breaks down but rather, see where if finally finds support. Won't fight the phase.
SLV Through 39.90 will be duly impressed with today's hold of prior day's lows. Bull phase would not change to warning unless it closes under the 50 DMA at 38.95 and with positive slope on 50 DMA, that would still be considered a weak warning phase.
SMH Target 30.65 reached. Could see 32.00. Now, needs to hold 29.70.
IYT Closed above the gap at 82.75. Support at 80.70 and next resistance should gap fill hold at top of range 86.00.
XRT Touched the 50 daily moving average at 50.12. Must now hold 48.50.
XLE XLF, good runs in sympathy but still below fast moving averages. The go to short should market begin to fail.
TLT Held fast moving average with today's low 111.82. Has to clear R1 on a 30 minute bar close at 113.73.
Longs: Recent Picks could watch for OR reversals but do not see a lot of new low risk setups right now. Existing longs watch for targets to lighten. This week's evening watches have targets included on all recent picks for you to look back at. Today's action still looks like a bear market rally. And, until the Fed meeting on September 20-21, expect more volatility, some initial reaction and then the true colors to become evident.
NEM Condition 1 with positive pivots at 63.97. Closed just above the 10 DMA at 64.13 with an inside day. If holds today's low and takes out today's high, 64.49 could see move to 66.61 and possible move if closes on new highs to 75.00 Day to swing
CELG Ultimately has to clear 65.00 on weekly to get a test of last year's high77.39. Negative pivots so must clear R1 first and today's high 61.00. Risk 59.50. Day to swing
TSO Condition 2 with 2 days under the FTP at 23.32 with good risk to 22.60 yesterday's low. Must clear 24.05 then could see 25.79 then 28.74. A close above that breaks multi year highs. Day to swing
WYNN Still consolidating. Needs to hold 146.85 (low of last 3 days) or trouble and might consider a short. Otherwise, could buy above R1 151.25 with next resistance 158.25 then 165.25. Day to mini
Hon Mention: IDCC (held 50 DMA must clear 64.86) GMCR (Through today's high) AAPL (must clear 392.25 to see 403)) JAZZ (30 min bar close over R1 43.69) AEM (over 70.35) ED (watch for OR reversal) PCLN (Watch for OR reversal) ARMH (on OR reversal) CERN (another pick this week-watch for OR reversal) MA (OR reversal)
Shorts:
UltraShorts to Look at:
SKF Went long on OR breakout and then again on OR reversal but stopped out with tight stops each time (never stand in front of a speeding train) But, it held last week's low and still has a positive slope to the fast moving average making this a condition 2 with 3 days under the FTP. First must cross the FTP at 76.62 and then R1 at 78.99. Risk to today's low for mini and last week low for swing. Day to swing
SDS Tested and held the 50 DMA with a positive slope on both that and the 10 DMA. 3 days under the FTP at 23.61 and R1 at 24.37. Risk to today's lows. Day to swing
MCP If the market hadn't rallied this would have followed through more to the downside. Key is it did not cross R1 and had an OR high failure in the last ½ hour. Also, remains under the 200 DMA at 54.07. Pivots are slightly positive so now must break the FTP at 52.73 with the 200 DMA as a risk point then must break Monday's low 51.04. Target 45.00 Day to mini
SOHU Must break last week's low 72.62. Then could see drop to 65.00. Has negative pivots at 74.82. Risk today's high for mini. Day to mini
Hon Mention: WLT (never crossed R1 must break 81.87 negative pivots at 84.10) ACOM (must break 27.80) CNX (negative pivots at 42.39 risk 43.12) NFLX (positive pivots must break 205.40)RIMM must stay under 30.31 and break 29.00)
Goodnight!