Next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Sept. 20-21. Been doing some research and found an interesting strategy used in 1961. The FED did "Operation Twist," which means they sold short-term securities while buying longer-term debt. The goal was to flatten out the yield curve or "twist" it so that companies would have little choice but to begin investing the capital they were hoarding. Plus, they raised short-term rates as a means of attracting foreign investment to the United States. Seems a viable option FED could do as a short term solution and given the other choices the best option.
SPY In the last 2 weeks, there have been 3 accumulation days and 2 distribution days in volume and clearly today's volume did nothing to tip that scale one way or another. A break of 116.55 would spell trouble as we must not forget the phase is still bearish with no indications of that turning just yet. There is a gap to fill to 120.34. Positive pivots at 117.37 to hold.
DIA Has to get through R1 now at 111.83
QQQ Low volume after an accumulation day yesterday. 54.00 now pivotal area to stay above with 55.50 area the 50 weekly moving average resistance as well as the 50 DMA.
IWM A trading range has been established between 64.50 and 74.00. The really patient could wait for the range to break before establishing any longer term position. For now, anticipation is for a test of the top of the range provided it holds above 68.00 on a closing basis.
ETFs:
GLD Recommended a buy over 177 on the OR reversal with taking half profit at ½ ATR with choice of holding small position overnight or taking the total profit if closed under the gap fill. Overall, still in a wide trading range 170-186. Now would like to see 176.50 hold and through 179.50 a test of 182 next.
SLV Provided it holds 39.30 area, could see a test of 40.60 next resistance with bullish trend intact.
SMH**There is a parallel channel which tested the top with today's rally. Ideally would like to see a gap higher above it with next target 30.65 then 32.00. Otherwise, needs to hold 29.10 or could see some selling since overall formation merely shows a trading range and not a confirmed bottom.
IYT Crossed above 79.45 and rallied to the adaptive moving average. Still has gap to 82.75. Under today's low, vulnerable.
XRT Good follow through and near the 50 weekly moving average at 49.20. In order to stay strong, has to hold above 47.85 level.
XLE Had good volume today although it could not cross R1 now at 66.07. Like so many others, range bound albeit wide. Above R1 could see test of the top of that range or around 70.40. Under 64.20 trouble.
XLF DOJI 12.45. Now pivotal.
Longs: Picks from last night which triggered long that I tweeted about and now could watch for OR reversals: ORLY Had perfect 5 minute OR breakout above pivots as a condition 1 that had 3 days under. Last week high of 68.49. Measured move to 72.00 ISRG had 30 minute OR breakout, next resistance at 397.00 SINA had 30 min OR breakout resistance 120 DECK had 30 minute OR B/O resistance 101.70LULU had 30 minute OR B/O resistance 60.00 GMCR OR reversal and now must hold 108.90 and close over 111.42
WYNN Inside day and good intraday consolidation. Provided it holds 146.85 (low of last 3 days) could buy above today's high with next resistance 158.25 then 165.50. Day to swing
JAZZ in consolidation. Over R1 43.65 clears the resistance with next area all time high 44.63 and measured move to 52.00. Must hold 42.00. Day to mini
RRC Opening Range Reversal which tweeted. Condition 2 with 3 days under the FTP at 62.23. Risk for swing 60.65. Miniswing 62.04. Above the DMA 64.31 could see move to 67.33 all time high with measured move to 78.00. Day to swing
PCLN Inside day positive pivots at 523.19 which is a good risk for this condition 2 stock with better support at 515.65. Must clear R1 and the 10 DMA or over 531.75 to stay long for swing. Otherwise that is resistance for day or miniswing traders. Could see a move to 560 if market stays happy with all time high 561.88 and a substantial move higher possible. Day to swing
Hon Mention: AAPL (must clear 383.25)COG (has to clear 70.93 R1) TSO (has to clear 24.13 R1)VMW (through 91.85) BIDU (Through 145.25) Look for OR reversal in AMZN (target 220.64)LVS (if holds 46.80) AEM (over 71.06) ED (if holds 55.20)
Shorts:
MCP Inside day negative pivots. Should not get above 53.52 to get short. Pivots at 52.67 with break of today's low, 51.81 next target 45.00 Day to mini
SOHU under 74.10 S1 although must break last week's low 72.62. Then could see drop to 65.00. Risk no more than 75.85. Day to mini
WLT Inside day negative pivots at 84.95. Would not short over today's high 87.48. If breaks today's low, see move to 78.60. Day to mini
ANR inside day negative pivots at 29.54. Risk no more than 30.17 with target if breaks the low, 28.91 26.05 Day to mini
Hon Mention: CNX (negative pivots ID, under 41.84) NFLX (positive pivots inside day so must break 204.05) RIMM must stay under 30.62 and break 29.00)
Goodnight!