SPY If this week's closing price is above the downgrade week's closing price, maybe, just maybe we can begin to look at some of the S & P 500 stocks that have gotten hit hard. But for now, we can still rally another 3.00 from here and continue to look only like a bear market bounce to the 50 DMA rather than a bottom. My classic signs are absent like volume, slope of moving averages, phase-price can rule, but typically, all factors need to line up. So, not trying to pick a top and all eyes on the FED next week. And we have been recommending longs since the my return in SMH XRT IYT. Therefore, keep raising those stops.
DIA Here's another example-slope of the 50 DMA declining and yet about 3.00 away from top of range. See 112.30 key support.
QQQ Kissed the 200 DMA, nearly overbought on the daily RSI and volume light. But, I'm not going to argue with it's now confirmed yet still weak change of phase to recovery. 55.50 was the first target and now a good number to hold. I am still anticipating the breeze that chills the longs, but for now, leaders have shrugged off all bad news.
IWM 74.00 the top of the range. 69.50 now support
ETFs:
GLD Broke but did not short since 172.50 support level held and it is still in a bull phase. We could drop further, but for now, eyes on signs of support prevail.
SLV closed under the 50 DMA with positive slope still intact, so unconfirmed and weak warning phase. 2 bottoms made late August at 38.05 (not a double bottom for a longer term, more recent daily support). Will watch to see if holds and comes back through the 50 DMA.
SMH Could see 32.00 or higher. Other than partial profits yesterday still long but is overbought which means a close under 30.50 not a bad place for a stop loss on balance.
IYT Support at 81.00 and next resistance at top of range 86.00.
XRT Had a death cross today right at the moving averages. Find that interesting since might be a low risk short against today's highs if fails 50.00 with a confirm under 49.20 on a closing basis, the 50 weekly moving average.
XLF gap fill to 12.99 to watch.
Longs: The OR reversal especially on picks that are above pivots and even more so when pivots are stacked positive is such a great trade. Plus, the OR high failure on short picks with negative stack equally good. Worked again today on every index, ETF and some of our stocks as well. Here's a few ED JAZZ BIDU NEM AMZN TSO MA LULU (NFLX OR high failure) DB, was a great one day miniswing reaching 1.5 ATRs today from OR breakout entry yesterday.
CELG Ultimately has to clear 65.00 on weekly to get a test of last year's high 77.39. Positive pivots at 60.46 yet still must clear R1 at 61.09 on a 30 minute bar confirm to keep going. Risk 59.70. Day to swing
GMCR Condition 1 with 2 days under the pivot at 107.85 and the 10 DMA at 107.65. (A conservative risk) Been a bit wild lately but if good, also needs to clear R1 112.54. This week's high was 114. Could see 120 next. Day to mini
SINA Not 2 days under the FTP but a Condition 1 that should hold the negative pivot at 110.75 and get through R1 at 113.02 to resume move up. Far from recent highs so could hold for swing provided it closes above the 10 DMA at 107.37. Mini and day use the pivots. Day to swing
CERN Inside day and neutral pivots at 67.67. Risk today's low otherwise might have to sit to a test of the 10 DMA at 65.60. High this week 69.38 with a possible move to 80.00. Day to swing
BIDU Already long from yesterday but hasn't moved much and has an inside day today with positive pivots at 147.21. Must clear 150 and then target 159.50. For now, 144.36 yesterday's low is a good swing risk, mini can use today's low. With positive pivots, still a candidate for an OR reversal buy. Day to swing
CMG I put this stock in from time to time even though average daily volume is 670k and generally that makes for thin trading. But, it had an inside day and is near the top of recent resistance at 321.60. Has positive pivots at 315.65 and the 50 DMA as the closest support at 313.60 with today's low 312.25 for OR reversal risk. Once clears top of resistance points could see 341.00. Day to swing
PPS Condition 1 even if not on Nugs List with 2 days under the FTP that is stacked positive at 42.06 with inside day and good risk to today's low for mini and under 41.00 for swing. All time high made recently at 44.37. Through there measures to 53.00. Day to swing
Hon Mention: HUM (Inside day must clear 78.90) SLB (if holds 74.10 could be basing) WLT (over R1 86.67) NEM (has to cross 65.00) TSO (long next resistance 25.79) WYNN (Must clear 152) IDCC(held 50 DMA must clear 65.11) JAZZ (through 43.85)
Shorts: SOHU best short of the day on weakness NFLX on OR reversal.
Note: SDS has to clear R1 23.12 for reversal trade long
CPT Closed below the 50 DMA at 64.44 with an inside day and negative pivots at 64.70. Risk is over today's high 65.77. But must break this week's low63.91 to see 60.00 next support. Day to mini
FSLR Risk today's high 93.64, negative pivots at 90.82 with a bearish engulfing candle today. Solars have been hit hard so selling closer to resistance will control risk better. If risk is clear, can sell weakness as well-all depends on how things line up. Day to mini
ACOM Did not break 27.80 although gave you a shot at an OR high failure against R1. Since pivots were positive though, stood aside. Pivots still positive but looking like a bear flag which breaks down under today's low with 2 inside days in a row. Recent low 26.59, under that could see 20.00 Would not short over 30.00 Day to swing
Hon Mention: SHW (Neutral pivots risk today's high, ID, must break lows) TZOO (close under 31.50 21.50 next support) SOHU (65.00 target) MCP (45.00 target if breaks 50.00) RIMM (Watch for OR high failure)
Goodnight!
