S&P 500 closed out the week down with an inside day. It also closed resting on the fast moving average which means Monday will be telling about whether or not this it's due for more correction, or ready to rally on. Russell 2000 closed up on the day, down on the week, holding the fast moving average. NASDAQ closed basically unchanged. The divergence is notable, but not nearly as notable as the divergence in the sectors and groups. Biotechnology is unshakeable right now; real estate, retail, the financials fell off substantially. But the real kicker is in semiconductors and transportation-both fell hard and have charts that look foreign compared to the overall market internals. I liked the old twist better than the new twist.
S&P 500 (SPY) Inside day which means follow the range up or down. Subs: Pivots negative
Russell 2000 (IWM) 85.00 to 85.20 area has to hold. This outperformed so watch this for a clueSubs: Pivots positive-closed the week under the weekly Bollinger Band.
Dow (DIA)Subs: Pivots Positive. 134.85 the fast moving average
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Good news it worked off some of the overbought conditions. The fast moving average is 69.67 which could still be tested. Otherwise, now over last week's high, good thing.Subs: Pivots Positive
ETFs:
GLD Subs:Possible slingshot pattern that needs confirmation. But that would be counter to EVERYONE who thinks this is going to the moon. Also, the miners andSLV had one too
XLF (Financials) The second disappointing close last week into support which means do or die to the 50 DMA
SMH (Semiconductors) Confirmed phase change to distribution. Looking to see if can turn around and clear the 50DMA.Subs: Interestingly, pivots positive
XRT (Retail)I was long and exited since it could not close over the fast moving average. But, it held the low from last week so willing to give it another shot if can clear Friday's high
IYT (Transportation) Subs: Now, if clears the channel once again, we have a new established stop. But not going to jump that gun
IYR (Real Estate) Actually oversold and tested near the 50 DMA and an inside day to boot
USO (US Oil Fund) Still inside the candle from last Thursday. Under Friday's low looks vulnerable still
OIH (Oil Services) Watch Friday's low to hold
XLE (Energy) 74.40 important support to hold if this is to stay strong
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly.
Category 1: (Aloha) Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
FIO 29.47 max risk. 31.46 last week's high. 2012 high 33.87
MMM Has to take out 94.00 now
CF has to hold Friday low and clear 219.70 then Friday high
Category 2: (Pipeline) Positive Phase, Condition 2-3, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
KSS 52.50 max risk. Over Friday high better since inside day
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
COG Improved to condition 1. Like to see Friday low hold.
RRC 69.07 has to hold.
OII Improved to condition 1 but has to hold Friday low.
DVA Look for a reversal against 99.75
QCOM 63.79 good risk. Over 65.45 last swing high
SLB Has to hold Friday's low.
LNKD With the highs so close, must now hold the 10 DMA
GRA Closed on new highs-has to hold 61.00
SWI Has to hold 59.20. Improved to condition 1.
CAVM Inside day and improved to condition 1. Has to hold34.39, clear Friday high
Category 4: (Rip Tide) Oversold (2 or more days under FTP), Condition 4, Needs to clear R1, Risk previous day low unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
Phase Change: CHRW Over 57.82 should finally get going. Had an inside day CREE Inside day, positive pivots. Must hold 27.89POT Inside day. Converging moving averages. Friday low good risk.SFLY Friday low good max risk. 2012 high made last week 35.00
Shorts:
Category 5:Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
NFLX Will short again under Friday's low, risk 58.50 area
BBY 18.11 max risk
Category 6: White Cap-Having a 2-3 Day correction over the pivots. In a Negative Phase, Positive Pivots. Can sell an Opening Range High Failure if happens below R1 or previous day high whatever is higher and/or weakness if breaks S1 and prior day's lows
ORLY Has to break S1.
Bye for Now!
