Low volume nothing day to begin the week. And, pretty much expect it to stay quiet again for the next couple of days. That means a quiet choppy drift, which will be good for a resumption of the rally.
S&P 500 (SPY) 144.65 area the support. Subs: R1 and today's high line up after 3 days under pivots
Russell 2000 (IWM) Held key support finishing the day with a doji. Subs: R1 and today's high line up
Dow (DIA)Subs: R1 and today's high line up
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) 68.90 next support as this gapped under the fast moving average.Subs: R1 and today's high line up after 3 days under pivots
ETFs:
GLD Yes this could go to 2000, but for now, Friday's high with today' gap lower is toppy with next support 164.
XLF (Financials) 15.71 was the 3 day high a few weeks ago. Held today. Now, want to see it clear 16.01 again
IBB (Biotechnology) With 4 tradig days left to the month, watching to see if hold the close of last month considering it has done that all but one time this year
SMH (Semiconductors) Subs: Noticed that this tested the 65-weekly moving average and is oversold. That might get me into the actual ETF (not calls) over today's high.
XRT (Retail) Staying out of its way for now
IYT (Transportation) Subs: Slingshot possible and love the confirm back into the channel been showing on the video
IYR (Real Estate) Held the 50 DMA which means good one to watch for reentry longSubs: Since it could not close above the pivots exited the long.
OIH (Oil Services) Subs: Like that today's high and R1 line up
XLE (Energy)Held last week's low so good to watch. Subs: Today's high and R1 line up
REE (Rare Element Res Ltd)Subs: Have a trendline connecting recent swing highs, watching for a possible breakout in its current attempt to confirm an accumulation phase
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Subs: TBT held the 70 EMA today
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly.
Note: The category 1 and 2 picks are excellent setups if the market firms
Category 1: (Aloha) Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
FIO 29.47 max risk. 31.46 last week's high. 2012 high 33.87 (Long small position and will look to add over today's high)
BIIB 154.10 the 10 DMA to hold especially on a closing basis. R1 and today's high line up
Z correction with max risk 43.50 the 10 DMA. 46.86 last week's high
BEN 125 a good tight risk. R1 and today's high line up
Category 2: (Pipeline) Positive Phase, Condition 2-3, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
OII 55.02 max risk. Only 1 day under pivots so like over today's high and R1 only
QCOM 3 days of negatively stacked pivots. I like this only over today's high which lines up with the 10 DMA and R1
SLB 3 days of negatively stacked pivots. I like this only over today's high which lines up with the 10 DMA and R1
AGU 101.17 is max risk. R1 and today's high line up. 102.90 the 10 DMA to clear
TROW 6 days of negatively stacked pivots but closed up on day. 64.00 good risk. Today's high and R1 line up
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
MMM Has to take out 94.00 now
LNKD With the highs so close, must now hold the 10 DMA. Inside day
ESRX Improved to condition 1, inside day and had the narrowest range in 201 days. 62.70 max risk the 10 DMA 64.33 all-time high
Category 4: (Rip Tide) Oversold (2 or more days under FTP), Condition 4, Needs to clear R1, Risk previous day low unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
AXP Oversold and on 50 DMA. Has to hold today's low for max risk
Phase Change: POT Converging moving averages. R1 and today's high line up. Narrowest range in 201 days SFLY 4 days under pivots since making 2012 high last week at 35.00. Tested the 50 DMA which is max risk PXP Nearly an inside day-but closed under the 200 DMA which it has to get back above and hold today's low JOY Inside day, pivots positive and on the 10 DMA. Today's low max risk.
Shorts:
Category 5:Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
NFLX Risk today's high
ORLY Has to break S1. And today's low which line up
Bye for Now!