Melt up today! A day when the 2% move up in the indexes comes on the heels of FED's encouragement concerning the US economy. But, did we really need their seal of approval to see what has been going on since 2012 began? After all, since the year began, it appeared obvious that rates could rise, commodities would flatten and Financials would soar after 5 years under pressure.
NASDAQ (QQQ) Where will this rally stop? Instead of concerning yourself with that, instead go with the flow and let the market tell you when-past dailies have explained factors that go into assessing a top. Of course, astute traders will be on the lookout for that. For now, we have been enjoying the ride.
S&P 500 (SPY) 142-144 seems like a reasonable target. Would not be surprised to see some early follow through for those who are finally convinced to buy. And would hope to see some digestion to work off the exuberance.
The Dow (DIA) 134-135 reasonable target
Russell 2000 (IWM) 83.31 last swing high
ETFs:
GLD We have made money both long and short this year. Now, back in an unconfirmed and weak distribution phase. At this point, unless it works its way back over the 200 DMA and closes there, bias is back to negative.
XLF (Financials) Nobody who reads this daily should be surprised by today's rally in this group. Maybe only surprised at how well technical analysis works. If you needed confirmation of the 5 year trend reversal, guess what?
IBB (Biotechnology) Has room to recent highs.
SMH (Semiconductors) Back over the 10 DMA and room to the recent highs. Will be curious to see how this and biotechnology respond in light of their recent lag to the overall market.
IYT (Transportation) A weak warning phase is one you do not short, but wait for the reversal sign to buy. Today was it. Back over the 50 DMA and needs another day to confirm it back to the bullish phase.
IYR (Real Estate) Took out the last swing high and closed beneath. Doesn't mean much yet; but could if fails today's low. Otherwise, could see move to 63.00-64.00 next.
XRT (Retail) Followed through from the inside day. But not as exciting here and does not have to be since this has led the rally since December.
USO (United States Oil Fund) Could not convincingly clear the 10 DMA and in fact, closed beneath. If fails this week's low, looking at last week's low 39.91.
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Finally, after months of bottom picking, this made its move today. 20.15 high December 1st. Next point to watch.
UNG Made a new low then reversed closing on the high. Subs: 18.49 last week's high after it gapped lower. That is a good number to hold or use as risk if opens higher. Then, has gaps to fill to 19.44 a good first target. If opens lower, must hold 18.06. Has a lot to prove, so calling this a Day to Hybrid Swing (miniswing targets with a tail left on).
Longs: Whoa! All I can say is what a day to prove to you that our system works-the payoff is in the swings-and, we were ahead of this day-booking huge gains along the way! Now, I'm all about risk for any new entries unless you are daytrading.
FDX If that sector and this market sustain, this has room to 98.00-101.00. Positive Pivots at 92.43 which is also the high from 2/27 so a great price to watch. The 50 DMA 91.24 also needs to hold. Day to Swing
NTAP Coming into resistance at 44.19-44.99 but that could be also a great area to break for another leg up. For now, with positive pivots, provided it holds today's low, would look for an entry in anticipation that above those levels we can see a move to 55.00. Day to Swing
VFC Some of you remember when we were looking at this over 135.00. Now, it's consolidating again here near the all time high 150.00. Has positive Pivots at 147.89 with good risk under today's low. Then, if continues, could see another 5.00-7.00 move up. Day to Short-term Swing
LO Positive Pivots at 130.54 with max risk today's low. All-time high was made on February 29th at 132.61 which if clears can take this to 136 next and possibly higher. Day to Swing
ESRX Positive pivots at 54.26 with today's low the risk. If can clear 55.09 recent highs, 2011 high 60.89 and possibly higher in the works. Day to Swing
Honorable mention: Must Clear CF (182.93) PXD* (108.82) COP (78.05) KORS (49.92) Positive Pivots Opening Range Reversal: BG CSTR REGN LVS
Shorts: Metals and Oil would be the place to go now for short possibility. Otherwise, have to wait for the euphoria in the market to subside.
SINA After a Bearish engulfing pattern and an attempt at the 200 DMA plus a slingshot trade as it made new 60-day highs only to close on the lows, second day with negative pivots at 75.38 and should not clear R1 76.96. Support at the 10 DMA at 72.64 then the 70 EMA at 68.45. Day to Swing but would like to see the 50 DMA slope down.
RRC Negative pivots at 61.93 and should not clear or will return over the 200 DMA. Day to Mini for now
Honorable Mention: POT SLB
Goodnight!