Volume, a topic I have not written about lately, was good. Not off the charts, but the 3rd accumulation this week in S&P 500 (SPY), NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) and now, in our little sobering friend Russell 2000 (IWM), which also managed a new high close since 7/22/11. What the volume suggests, since this has not been a classic high volume rally by any means, is that real buyers are coming back into the market making it far more fun for us active traders who thrive off of liquidity.
NASDAQ (QQQ) Where will this rally stop? Instead of concerning yourself with that, instead go with the flow and let the market tell you when-past issues have explained factors that go into assessing a top. Of course, astute traders will be on the lookout for that. For now, we continue to enjoy the ride.
S&P 500 (SPY) 142-144 seems like a reasonable target.
The Dow (DIA) 134-135 reasonable target
Russell 2000 (IWM) 83.31 last swing high and getting closer.
ETFs:
GLD We have made money both long and short this year. A confirmed and weak distribution phase exits. 158 a support area and next place to watch for short and back over the 200 DMA impressive
XLF (Financials) Will this give traders a correction to buy or is it more like everyone waiting for the correction so the rally continues. Of course now, risk to enter is not manageable
IBB (Biotechnology) Quiet firming over Wednesday high with room on upside
SMH (Semiconductors) 35.49 recent high-if rallies above, don't fight it
IYT (Transportation) Long and strong with 96.13 last high in early February in its midst and beyond
IYR (Real Estate) Could see move to 63.00-64.00 next. Subs: Inside day will add to existing over today's high
XRT (Retail) I have subscribers who have been long this for a swing trade since 54.70.
USO (United States Oil Fund) Have not seen an edge long or short for a couple of weeks as this holds the 50 DMA but trades under the fast moving average. Subs: 2 days under the pivots which means over 40.65 could head right back up.
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Another one we relentlessly watched for the bottom and held onto after initially making our brokerage firm happy with commissions in and out
UNG Subs: Hammer candle and slingshot still in tack since the low of the reversal day is holding (that's the risk). Back over 18.56 should be long, again. Day to Hybrid Swing (miniswing targets with a tail left on).
Longs: It's Friday which could mean anything goes especially with options expiration. My biggest issue is narrowing down the list of great setups. I have all of the picks on my system and will try to narrow it down for you after the open.
AMGN (Narrow Range 21) Two days under the FTP at 68.11 and a doji day. Risk to today's lows. Can buy ½ over the FTP and ½ over R1 just above today's high to see if this can continue to 70.00, recent high and beyond to 77.00. Day to Swing
DE Positive Pivots bouncing against the 70 EMA which means over today's high, 82.09 could see a move first to test the 50 DMA at 84.55 or better. Risk under 80.92 for swing. Day to Swing
JCP Hammer candle after 6 days correction and 5 days until today, under the FTP. Tight risk to the FTP 36.63 and should clear R1 37.36 to stick with trade. Looking at a move back to the highs 44.00 area. Day to Swing
CAT Over today's high 113.48, with positive pivots at 112.77 which is a tight risk, should continue higher and then has a really good chance of new highs. Day to Swing
EOG Missed having 2 inside days in a row by one tick. Positive pivots at 115.31 and looks poised for new highs over 121.44 Can buy a reversal or breakout over today's high. Day to Swing
APA Golden Cross and above the 10 DMA with 2 days under the FTP at 106.85 and max risk today's low. Like to see today's high and R1 clear for the move to 112.02 recent high and beyond. Day to Swing
NTAP Resistance at 44.19-44.99 but that could be also a great area to break for another leg up. For now, with positive pivots, provided it holds today's low, would look for an entry in anticipation that above those levels we can see a move to 55.00. Day to Swing
Honorable mention: Must Clear VFC (148.56) LO (131.02) ESRX (55.09) KORS* (48.29) SLG (79.56) GS (124.33) PAY* (51.05) TSLA (35.48) NOV* (80.98) SFLY (33.10) Positive Pivots Opening Range Reversal: FDX BG NFLX WYNN REGN
Shorts: All are in a bear phase and have negative pivots. For brevity will list FTP R1 (or today's high for risk) and Target only
BHI FTP 47.61 R1 47.99 Target 42.00
CAVM FTP 33.20 HOD 33.50 Target 31.15 or lower
CHRW FTP 65.25 R1 65.60 Target 62.84 or lower
GMCR FTP 51.28 HOD 52.22 Target 41.25 or lower
JOY FTP 77.96 R1 79.43 Target 72.60 or lower
Honorable Mention: SOHU (Must break S1)
Goodnight!