The Relative Strength Indicators on the weekly charts in S&P 500 (SPY) and NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) are clearly overbought which brings the top pickers out of the woodwork and except for some sprinklings of excitement here and there, makes the current rally as exciting as watching paint dry. Russell 2000 (IWM) and The Dow (DIA) are not overbought, which is why we switched to trading IWM last week, waiting for 83.30 to penetrate, which did not disappoint.
NASDAQ (QQQ) I have nothing new to write. If you are fading, well, hope you have deep pockets; if you're long, no signal to exit; if you are aside, why? Subs: Pivots Positive
S&P 500 (SPY) 142-144 target although if breaks 140, could be in for some correction. Subs: Pivots Positive
The Dow (DIA) 131.60 held with today's low 131.78. 134-135 target unless that level breaks. Then, possible correction in store. Subs: Pivots Positive
Russell 2000 (IWM) 87.00 reasonable target unless fails the 83.00 level. Subs: Pivots Positive
ETFs:
GLD Subs: Looking for a short entry after the test of the 160 EMA. But, first must fail S1 160.77 and not cross 163.40.
XLF (Financials) Risk now unmanageable
IBB (Biotechnology) 122.45 last swing high
SMH (Semiconductors) Took out 35.49 the recent high-hopefully, you didn't fight it
IYT (Transportation) Moved to 96.22 and then closed lower. Overall chart still looks strong. Subs: Positive Pivots
IYR (Real Estate) 63.00-64.00 still a target.
XRT (Retail) Small possible correction which these days occurs in a day. Subs: 2 days under the FTP and a hold of today's low could see more upside.
USO (United States Oil Fund)Tried to clear 41.36 resistance but closed below. A strong open would be a sign of more upside
XLE (Energy) Over 75.00 now so should see more.
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) It's the bottom all right, but hard to buy up here if not already in
UNG Subs: In long with stop under 17.80 until this clears 18.62. Then would add and raise stop. Day to Swing
Longs: Nice moves today early on, but market lacks luster up here so patience and position management is catamount. Once again, see so many great setups, have to narrow list down. If you see something you like not here, please ask. For example, one sub asked about DVN and another asked about CREE. I gave them both instructions which if they followed, resulted in excellent trades.
KORS Nice move in the aftermarket over the 10 DMA which means watch for gap higher and hold of 47.00 level. Recent highs at 50.69 to clear and then into uncharted territory. Day to Swing
BIIB 2 days under the FTP and hanging onto the 10 DMA with max risk today's low. Like it over R1 and today's high. All time high made on 2/03 at 123.23 and could see a continuation. Day to Swing
FOSL Big green candle with all-time high 135 in its midst. Risk is 128.50 the pivots. Day to Swing
MON Another big green candle with support and risk to 79.50, the pivots. Over 80.15 looks good to 81.00 2012 high or better. Day to Swing
PAY Condition 2 which means over today's high, goes back to a condition 1 and can use 50.00 as a risk. Goal is April 2011 high 58.88. Day to Swing
ORLY On Geoff's watch last week. 2 days under the pivots with a good recovery from the lows by days' end. Over today' high matches R1 89.97 and also clears the 10 DMA. Recent high 90.94 with room to 95.00 and risk 89.50. Day to Swing
Honorable mention: Must Clear VFC (150) JCP* (36.77)) DLTR (94.23) Positive Pivots Opening Range Reversal: AAPL (CAT NTAP HOT XOM GNC PRGO-last night's picks) LO FDX WYNN EOG
Shorts:
DECK Negative pivots at 67.65 and should not clear 68.83. Last swing low 65.40 then 58.40 next. Day to Mini
SODA Negative Pivots at 36.70 and must not clear 38.10. Could see 33.60 or lower. Also, feel better staying short if breaks and stays under today's low. Day to Swing
CHRW Provided this stays beneath 66.00 and breaks S1 65.37, could see move to 64.50 and lower with recent swing low 62.84. Day to Swing
JOY Negative pivots and like to see this stay under 79.68 although pivots are at 79.81. S1 needs to break as well 76.53 to see a move to 72.60 or lower. Day to Swing
PANL Negative pivots and like to see this stay under today's low although pivots are at 40.32. Could see a move to 36.00 or lower. Day to Swing
Goodnight!