Last night, I wrote up 3 possible scenarios. 1. Watch for a return move over the high of the gap down day to follow up. 2. Keep a cash position until the market tests a major moving average (such as the 50 DMA) establishing a support area. 3. Wait to see if the market gaps higher tomorrow.
S&P 500 (SPY) 136.28 fills the gap and now anticipating that Tuesday low will hold if the market has a chance to play out scenario 3. Subs: Pivots Positive
NASDAQ (QQQ) Wrote that Scenario 1 would work best in this index. It did and ran to the 10 DMA. Subs- Positive Pivots
Russell 2000 (IWM) Inside day and closed on the 50 DMA. One could make a case for digestion here. Subs-Pivots Positive
ETFs:
GLD Unconfirmed phase change back to warning. Needs a second close over the 200 DMA to confirm. Subs-Got the return over Tuesday's high and return over the 200 DMA therefore took a miniswing long.
XLF (Financials) A gap above today's high would make this happy. Otherwise, 14.39 support and a second weekly close over 14.71 the confirmation of a reversal of the 5 year downtrend
IBB (Biotechnology) Inside day which means good one to follow the way the range breaks
SMH (Semiconductors) Wasn't the strongest of all the sectors, but was the second strongest.
IYT (Transportation) Still in a weak warning phase. Subs-Weak since the slop of the 50 DMA is still up.
IYR (Real Estate) Over 60.45 area-still a good group to look at.
USO (United States Oil Fund) Was a perfect trade based on Strategy 1 described above. Witching to see what happens at 41.05
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) The first day I did not get long, I'm sure upsetting the brokerage firm who by now, is used to receiving its daily commissions. But that doesn't mean I've stopped shopping for the bottom.
Longs: Particularly focused on setups with inside days.
SFLY Inside day, positive pivots at 29.63 and also should ideally clear R1 30.44. Then, next resistance at the 160 EMA 34.35. A move to 40.00 not out of the question. Day to Swing
TWC Nearly an inside day since took out the lows by one tick and did not clear the prior day high. Also has neutral pivots at 77.92 with good risk to today's low. Should clear today's high and R1 78.53 as well and even better, is a clearance and close over the 10 DMA. Then would look good for a move to recent highs at 79.95 and possibly beyond to 2011 high 80.86 or higher. Day to Swing
RAX Two very interesting looking candles in a row. Best I can describe them as is a hammer followed by a doji. Today's low 51.12, should hold and also should clear today's high and R1 at 52.21. The 10 DMA is at 52.80, with a close above a good reason to stay with this for a possible retest of recent highs and perhaps a move to around 65.00. Day to Swing
AGN Made a new all-time high today. An opening range reversal would be a trade to look for, then perhaps a day to miniswing trade with risk, S1 88.97. Day to Mini
JPM In the financial sector, this looks the best although PRU has potential and outperformed this today. JPM crossed the 10 DMA today and has positive pivots at 39.80. Still would like to see this close over the 80 monthly moving average at some point-40.90 which would also clear recent highs. Then, with some help from XLF, this could get going. Day to Swing
Honorable Mention: Note about AAPL: R1 and today's high line up at 537.84 Inside day, Positive Pivots and been on the List. However, Should Clear R1. Note-if any of these gap higher above R1, look at for a 5 minute opening range entry: UPS (76.24) JCP (39.13) CELG (72.96) AMGN (67.31) Positive Pivots Opening Range Reversal: CRM* SPG*
Shorts: DECK dropped 10% today-the only short pick last night and does not get any better-especially considering the market firmed.
GMCR Negative Pivots at 64.25 but since it gapped higher on February 2nd, been consolidating under the 200 DMA. This means that ideally, it must break under 62.40 to get the next leg down. But also a candidate for an opening range high reversal to control risk. If it does not get too oversold too quickly, can see a drop to 40.00. Day to Swing
KSS (Inside day) Negative Pivots at 48.20 and must not clear the 50 DMA, R1 and today's high which all line up at 48.56. Then, if fails, could see 45.50 next support. Day to Mini
SNDK Inside day and negative pivots plus holding barely between the 50 DMA and 70 EMA. On the list since it gapped lower 2 days ago and if fails has room first to 47.00 and if stays weak, 45.00. Risk is above today's high. Day to Swing
Honorable Mention: Underperformed the market but with positive pivots, has to break S1: EQT HAL
Goodnight!