Well, well, well, Welcome to Scenario 3! The one where the S&P 500 (SPY) gaps higher and closes higher leaving a potential bottom on the recent correction, as well as closing above the fast moving average. Looking at the whole picture, there are a couple of reasons to keep us from total elation.
S&P 500 (SPY) Last week's high is the obvious point to watch for along with a hold of 136 to keep the gap in place
NASDAQ (QQQ) Wow-Got Scenario 1 yesterday and Scenario 3 today. It just proves that one should be aware of the phase and most importantly have a plan in place that is both flexible and viable.
Russell 2000 (IWM) The sobering index as this still needs to return over 81.00, the point it failed from last week. If it cannot, part of the plan for long positions should be trailing stops and profit targets.
ETFs:
GLD Nice follow through on the bounce off of the 200 DMA. Subs-Over today's high still looking for 1.5 ATRs, but if begins to tumble, raise the stop to under today's low.
XLF (Financials) A second weekly close over 14.71 the confirmation of a reversal of the 5 year downtrend
IBB (Biotechnology) After the inside day, another great lesson in following the way the range breaks Subs- Now over today's high, looks like some good bottoming action.
SMH* (Semiconductors) The one that tried harder yesterday, today ended with a DOJI.
IYT (Transportation) Remains in a weak warning phase until it clears or fails from the 50 DMA.
IYR (Real Estate) Tomorrow should be decisive whichever way today's range breaks.
USO (United States Oil Fund) Watching to see what happens at 41.05, but like any ETF that did not gap higher, these are the most suspect and ones to watch for signs of weakness.
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Long again and a close over 19.37 will keep us that way.
Longs: Have a lot of partial longs in place all of which I have posted on twitter. The financial area is one to watch. Otherwise, I recommend you manage your existing positions based on the analysis mentioned above of the indexes and ETFs.
As I am taking off Friday and Monday, please ask Keith and Geoff in the chat room (email instructions in your inbox) for stops, etc. on these or any of the recent picks, especially if you are miniswing trading: SFLY (Target 34.55, possibly 40.00) TWC (Did not get ½ ATR. Target 79.95 or beyond) RAX (Did not get ½ ATR. Target 65.00) AGN (Did not get ½ ATR Target 94.00) AAPL (Got ½ ATR Target 550.00) CELG (Got ½ ATR Target 76.00 or better) AMGN (Got ½ ATR Target 70.00 or better) CRM (Got ½ ATR Target 160.00 if closes above 146.26) UPS (Got ½ ATR Target 77.55 then onto new highs) PRU (Got ½ ATR Target 64-65.00)
HLF Positive Pivots and closed right on the 10 DMA. Should hold today's low and if stays firm, has room first to recent highs 68.01 then on to new all-time highs. Day to Short-term Swing
IMAX As I have been watching this trade, it (like a lot of smaller stocks) at times a bit thin. Overall, looks good with lots of potential to 30.00 or higher. Positive Pivots at 25.76 and risk for swing 24.57, this week's low. Mini can use today's low. Day to Swing
REGN Made its range in the first 30 minutes. Positive Pivots at 106.54 and should hold today's low. Considering this was trading up to 116.93 mid-February, has potential to at least match those highs. Day to Short-term Swing
SWK DOJI day with positive pivots at 76.32 and good risk to the 10 DMA at75.71. Overall chart looks good with all time high made in 2011 at 78.19 which if clears, should be good for a substantial move higher. Day to Swing
JPM DOJI day an opening range reversal that did not go anywhere although it held R1. Now, watch again to hold today's low and go higher. Would like to see this close over the 80 monthly moving average at some point-40.90 which would also clear recent highs. Day to Swing
Honorable Mention: Should Clear R1. SPG (139.28 Positive Pivots Opening Range Reversal: IBM CHKP WFM FDX TROW TSLA (Has to hold 32.89) JCP (Has to hold 38.14 even with positive pivots)
Shorts:
ABX Positive Pivots but underperformed the market. Watch for it to break S1 45.69 and not clear today's high to see 44.00 next support. Day to Short-term Swing (NEM provided 57.41 does not clear and under 56.17 to see 53.00 then 51.00 next)
OPEN Negative Pivots and cannot clear 43.90. Could see 40, then recent lows 31.55. Day to Swing
APKT Positive Pivots so must break today's low with next support 25.20, but overall chart looks weak. 20.00 a reasonable target. Day to Short-term Swing
Honorable Mention: GMCR (Exited since ahead of reports, staying in is like gambling unless you have a specific hedge-dropped precipitously after the close, but now watch for an OR high failure) SLV (If breaks today's low) BBG (Must not clear 28.82) VNO (Must not clear 80.89) WPI (For the very patient and it breaks today's low)
Goodnight!