June 14, 2015
Weekly Market Outlook
By Keith Schneider
US Equity markets seesawed this week and ended marginally up, but the benchmark SPY closed under the 50 day moving average. The sagas of the Greek debt crises, when or if Yellen and the Federal Reserve will raise rates, along with a very old tired bull market are old stories. An anemic recovery here in the US has the IMF cutting our growth figures (the US is an important global engine) and has its CEO Christine Lagarde concerned we could slip back into a recession. Meanwhile, in spite of the Greek drama, European growth is much better than in the US. Does that help clarify things?
Furthermore muddying the picture, the divergence between the Dow and the Dow Transports is glaring, even while NASADQ and tech stocks remain strong, albeit highly selective. The huge rise in the dollar versus the Euro seems set to reverse as well which is usually supportive to US Stocks. This month the Chinese currency could be admitted into the IMF reserve currency fund lending more support to a reversal of the bull move in the US dollar. Considering that China has become the world’s largest economy since 2014, it deems appropriate. All in all, with all the crosscurrents more sideways movement seems inevitable.
There are bright spots nonetheless and for those check out this week’s video.
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