February 12, 2012
Weekly Market Outlook
By Keith Schneider
This week the Republican presidential primaries produced yet another front runner, uber conservative Rick Santorum. His position on same sex marriage, birth control, gays in the military, food stamps, health reform, women’s rights, and cell phone usage by the uninsured certainly sets a new conservative standard. Santorum’s victories in Colorado, Missouri, and Minnesota stand in stark contrast to the recent vote to rescind Prop 8 in California, striking down the ban on same sex marriage.
The tug of war of extremes playing out in the presidential race is also evident in the market. Every day I get some e-mail from a well-respected cycle guru telling me that the stock market is going to collapse and our economy is going into a depression (before the world ends this December based on the Mayan calendar). Conversely, a few well respected hedge fund managers (including Dennis Gartmen) have thrown in their sweaty short towels and are looking for a melt-up. So, true to the old cliché, that the stock market follows social trends, the trend today is risk on and tomorrow it's risk off.
With so much cash on the sidelines it's easy to make the case for a melt up, and likewise with the European debt crises potentially unraveling the global economy, it’s equally easy to make a case for a meltdown as well. With the rule book in a constant state of flux, one thing you can be sure of is that no one really knows. What you can do is rely on ones charts. So let go to this week’s video and see what they reveal.
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