Top Takeaways for the First Half of 2018

July 1, 2018

Weekly Market Outlook

By Keith Schneider

Global stock indexes retreated this week with few exceptions. Surprisingly, two noteworthy winners were Russia, and Mexico. Both, no matter how you look at it, are directly in the crosshairs of the Trump administration. They both improved from bearish to recovery phases.

The declines were led by China and other Asian markets. The big question from looking at the scoreboard is whether the US markets (led by the NASDQ 100 and the Russell 2000) are buoyant enough to stay positive and reverse the global retreat underway. Year to date returns are negative for most equity markets, as the tables highlight.

(https://marketgauge.com/tools/big-view/?tab=1&chart=1)

Summary:

  • Momentum is breaking down on daily charts in the four key US Stock indexes with price action confirming
  • The Dow Industrials entered a confirmed distribution phase
  • Weekly price charts are still in the bullish camp for all key US Indexes, however longer-term momentum is suspect
  • Almost all international stocks indexes are down for the year
  • Growth Stocks and Semi’s need to hold current levels on a relative basis for this rally to sustain
  • Volume patterns and market internals are very weak
  • Risk indicators remain firmly in bear territory

Have a great week!

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