A Show for the Bulls, Bears and Aside

March 28, 2016

Mish's Daily

By Mish Schneider

“Nice guys finish first. If you don’t know that, then you don’t know where the finish line is.”

Last week the world of comedy lost one of its finest-Garry Shandling. From 1986-1990, his sitcom reflected Garry’s real life. His “storylines were often manipulated to create more favorable outcomes, or simply to speed things along.”-Wikipedia

In homage to Garry’s and his intention for the show, this Daily not only remembers a brilliant comic, but also aims to craft a storyline of the market that produces a favorable outcome. Regardless of whether you are a bull, bear or sitting in cash, I hope to speed comprehension along so we can get to those favorable outcomes faster.

The Modern Family Show for the Bulls

My Family has something for everyone-bulls, bears and the asides. For the bulls, Granny Retail (XRT), important in measuring consumer sentiment therefore a key ingredient to the market’s health, recaptured the 200 DMA and closed strong.

The Modern Family Show for the Bears

Big Bro Biotechnology (IBB), more of a measure of speculative interest rather than the health of the economy, closed red sitting right on the fast moving average and not too far from its 2016 lows.

The Modern Family Show for the Aside

Granddaddy Russell 2000 (IWM), who lags the other indices yet sits close enough to significant breakout or breakdown areas, explains the lack of speculative action at current levels. It also explains why those same folks could be ready to pounce.

The co-star for the bulls over the last month and a half Transportation (IYT), tested but ultimately held last Thursday’s low at 140.67. However, it did so marginally. Will IYT be manipulated to create a more favorable outcome and continue to hold the 200 DMA? Stay tuned.

Sister Semiconductors (SMH) has had her name up in lights on the Bull Show Marquee. Closing basically unchanged, SMH must clear 55 and hold 52 before we know if the producers of the market will renew her contract for either the Bull or the Bear Show.

Big Bro Biotech and the Bears cast Prodigal Son Regional Banks (KRE) as their costar. He’s been a willing bear show cast member since the nadir on February 11^th. Although KRE participated way more in the recent rally than IBB did, he remains under the fast moving average and not too far from the underlying 50 DMA.

Other supporting cast members of the Family-Oil, Interest Rates, and the US dollar seem to favor the aside crowd. Oil is trying to get back over $40 per barrel-an inflection point. TLTs are hovering at 130, its inflection area. The US Dollar weakened after last week’s rout and sits right on its 10 DMA, a pivotal spot or 24.84.

The “Garry Shandling Show” challenged the standard sitcom format by having its characters admit they were knowingly part of a TV show. The Modern Family members and supporting cast also recognize they are part of our show.

Whether the next move is a favorable outcome for you or not, we can all agree manipulation by the producers exists. It helps us, the studio audience, to be in the know. Now, we wait to see how long it takes for the producers to speed up an outcome.

S&P 500 (SPY) 201.75 support. 204 remains pivotal

Russell 2000 (IWM) 105 support and back at looking for 108.65 to clear if good, then 110

Dow (DIA) 175 pivotal with 173.70 support. Better at 171.25 the 200 DMA

Nasdaq (QQQ) 108 resistance and 106 support

XLF (Financials) 22.50 pivotal area

KRE (Regional Banks) 36.75 support. 38.50 all clear

SMH (Semiconductors) Over 55 clear and must hold around 52.00

IYT (Transportation) 140.60 pivotal

IBB (Biotechnology) 265 clears the 50 DMA. Otherwise, 250 next support area then 240

XRT (Retail) 45.50 pivotal

IYR (Real Estate) 75.78 the JCRH. Through 76.33 better

ITB (US Home Construction) 25.80 support and back over 26.75 good