June 4, 2015
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
The title of Wednesday’s night daily: If One of Those Bottles Should Happen to Fall…
Should have read, If the whole top shelf of those bottles should happen to fall…
The good news: We have been here before (like a lot), where the market looks poised to run only to sell off. Conversely, before we get too bearish, we have been there, done that as well.
Poor Modern Family. Just as they got some traction, the A/C broke down, heating things up, and then arguing ensued, forcing Grandpa Russell 2000 to pull the minivan over.
Grandma Retail, bless her heart, tried hard to keep everyone cheerful. Retail held the 50 DMA and confirmed the bullish phase. The Russell’s held onto its 50 DMA simpatico with Grandma. For support, they looked to their most robust grandson, Regional Banks. After Wednesday’s spectacular run, that sector closed ok, or at least well enough to sate Granddad and Grandma.
We knew Semiconductors were in trouble. They topped out on good volume. Yet, until it breaks the 50 DMA at 56.50, the other family members are allowing that sector to sulk. Big Bro Biotechnology is torn. On the one hand, that sector is holding up well. On the other hand, the sideways action is keeping it from taking any new leadership role.
And that leaves us with guess who-Transportation. The trading range Thursday was inside the trading range from Wednesday. It broke 152 but not in an irreparable way.
The state of the family-hot, bothered, but not ready to disown anyone just yet.
Grandpa Russell checks under the hood and finds out that the gasket blew. Grandma Retail heads to the store to buy coolant. Regional Banks ties a white handkerchief to the rearview mirror. The fate of this road trip hangs in the balance.
S&P 500 (SPY) Sandwiched between the 10 and 50 DMAs
Russell 2000 (IWM) Held the 50 DMA and still very much in the range since Mid-May
Dow (DIA) Held 179 support but in a unconfirmed warning phase now
Nasdaq (QQQ) Double top looking more possible with support to hold at 108
XLF (Financials) 24.90 the point to clear with 24.40 the 50 DMA
KRE (Regional Banks) Digested the move and held up fairly well
SMH (Semiconductors) Giving it leeway to 56.50
IYT (Transportation) 151.80 the pivotal weekly moving average to hold
IBB (Biotechnology) 353.75 the 50 DMA
XRT (Retail) Confirmed the Bullish phase on a down day-impressive
IYR (Real Estate) Holding the May lows-best I can say
GLD (Gold Trust) Holding early May lows and not done yet
USO (US Oil Fund) Touched and held the 50 DMA which means Thursday’s lows important to hold
TAN (Guggenheim Solar Energy) Getting real close to the 200 DMA which will be tempting to buy
TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasuries) Bounce after the Lagarde comments it seems-also cause it held the 200 week moving average
CORN (Corn) Looks promising
BAL (Cotton) Looks promising
DBC (DB Commodity Index) Needs to clear 18.00 now
SGG (Sugar) Trying to bottom
JO (Coffee) Also looks promising
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