Can Real Estate Save the Day?

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Location, Location, Location

With the expected quiet action, not much has changed in the overall picture of the market and its negative phases.

Nevertheless, although not a member of the Modern Family, the Real Estate ETF (IYR) had a solid day trading inside the trading range of Tuesday, outperforming the market and possibly conveying a positive sign just when the market needs one. With the 50 DMA overhead, IYR is only inches away from a potential phase change. (I’ll cover how to trade market phases in this week’s webinar)

Since Sunday, I have urged folks and investors to “Please try to dwell on the positives and embark on a new collective, self-fulfilling prophecy to reduce fear.”

Is History Repeating Itself?

If IYR cannot sustain a rally by the end of this September into October, then we might see history repeat itself.

Back in the fall 2013, September began a correction that lasted (with wicked rallies followed by equally sizeable selloffs) until the start of 2014, when IYR traded in a more reliable trend to the upside.

If we are to look to the Real Estate Sector for more upside right now, we must see both a return to a Recovery Phase with confirmation plus the price trading over 72.35 by the end of September, holding that level into October.

2 years since the selloff in the fall of 2013, when many analysts were predicting a 10-20% drop in the market, we are in the same boat now.

Should no rally occur imminently, the Real Estate Sector may bounce between 65.00 and 72.00 over the next few months and then possibly make its move over the 72.50 level by the beginning of 2016.

Possible. We have to keep the good thoughts flowing however to make that happen.

Another Potential Bright Spot

Regional Banks (KRE), the Prodigal Son of the Family, likes the 40.00 level also holding some promise.

In Tuesday night’s daily I focused on Commodities and areas to watch out for before we can confidently say a bottom is in place. Keep looking there as well.

Perhaps searching for a market redeemer is an exercise in futility. Yet, ya never know, right?

In the meanwhile, our discretionary account occasionally probes longs with relative strength using tight stops. Currently, cash remains our biggest position.

S&P 500 (SPY) 190 has daily chart support with 195 now the hurdle to clear.

Russell 2000 (IWM) Broke 114 which means unless this gets back over 115.40, could see 112 then 110 next

Dow (DIA) 162.15 a good pivotal spot. Will either see a move over 164.50 if good, otherwise, next support at 157 area

Nasdaq (QQQ) 104 pivotal then 105.55 resistance with 102.50 next support.

Volatility Index (VIX)

XLF (Financials)22.40 closest support. Good if it clears back over 23.20

KRE (Regional Banks) 36.35 best underlying support. Note that if this can continue to hold over 40.15 that is a decent sign

SMH (Semiconductors) Over 50.85 would be a tempting long swing buy. Otherwise, 48.00 next support

IYT (Transportation) 142.50 pivotal with 146.10 overhead resistance and 140 next support

IBB (Biotechnology) 340 pivotal now resistance. 325 next support

XRT (Retail) A monthly close over 45.38 keeps hope alive. Otherwise, looking at 44.00 next closest support

IYR (Real Estate) After an inside day, still has a shot if can hold 70.85 area and clear 73.00

ITB (US Home Construction) From riches to rags although it did hold the 200 DMA

GLD (Gold Trust) 110.50 really good resistance 106.90-107.20 key support

SLV (Silver) Weaker than gold and under the 50 DMA

USO (US Oil Fund) Looks like its trying hard to bottom-not ready to buy just yet though. 14.00 must hold

TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasuries) sloppy trading

UUP (Dollar Bull) confirmed phase change to warning (over the 200 DMA)

CORN (Corn) Over 23.80 on a weekly basis good

DBC (DB Commodity Index) Like better if can clear/hold over 15.25