Could Rivian Become a $100 Billion+ Company?

August 26, 2025

Mish's Daily

By Mish Schneider

I am back from my vacation and decided to write the first Mish’s Daily on a car company those of you who know my work, will not be surprised to read about.

I have been trading Rivian for 2 years now and maintain a wildly bullish sentiment for the future.

However, the price swings and volatility have made it tough to make, let alone hold, a profit.

Today, on X I read about an investor who is holding Rivian as his largest position.

This is after last Friday when Rivian reversed the downtrend and closed above the major moving averages.

This is after some news has surfaced:

Rivian says it plans to have hands-free point-to-point driver assistance available in late 2026.
This will eventually lead to the brand's roll-out of an eyes-off, truly autonomous system at a later date.
CEO RJ Scaringe believes that autonomy will be an unintentional driver of electric cars.

That puts Rivian only one year behind Tesla.

Plus, Rivian is well-positioned to capture market share with the upcoming R2 mid-size SUV, projecting significant growth potential as the company enters a broader, more competitive market segment.

R2’s roughly $50,000 price point will expand Rivian’s total addressable market (TAM) beyond the premium R1 lineup.

So, what does the chart say?

Looking at the chart, I have marked up some notable indicators.

On top you see the July 6-month calendar range high.

Interestingly, Monday’s price action tested it but right now, the price remains below this pivotal indicator high point.

However, the price is above both 50 and 200-DMAs so now in a confirmed bullish phase.

The middle chart shows real motion or our momentum indicator.

The red dots are below the moving averages, giving us a slight negative divergence between momentum and price.

However, where the ellipse and right after the recent earnings report, Rivian had a mean reversion to the buy side.

The bottom chart is our leadership indicator.

Rivian is now outperforming the benchmark.

If a trading opportunity is there, we need to see for starters, Friday’s low hold.

Then we need to see momentum increase.

Finally, a move over the July calendar range would be very positive.

Where can Rivian go from here?

Since April, Rivian has made higher lows on selloffs.

The 2025 high is 17.15.

A move above there puts the stock at around $25 as first bigger target.

Educational purposes only, not official trading advice. 

Limited offer.

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