September 15, 2025
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
While NVO did not win an Emmy, the company has spent $96 million in Q2 alone on TV ads.
And I am sure if one queried a random group of actors, we might discover that taking one diet drug or another is integral to their vanity plan.
In June Novo spent $39.9 Million up from $24 million in May.
Given what is known and what isn’t public, a reasonable working estimate is that Novo Nordisk’s U.S. TV ad spend for prescription drugs in 2025 to date is in the low hundreds of millions of dollars—possibly in the range of $250-400 million for just its top GLP-1/weight loss ones, and higher if you include all branded drugs.
The future could be excellent for Novo.
The oral semaglutide developments are particularly important; if successful, an oral Wegovy dose for weight management would broaden use, improve patient compliance, and potentially open new market segments.
Novo’s positioning may shift from purely growth and scaling toward “smart growth” — doubling down on what works, streamlining what doesn’t, being more disciplined in spending and R&D.
Of course, we turn to the chart.
While the price has more to do to prove it has truly bottomed out, there are four interesting patterns to note.
South Park: The End of Obesity (Paramount+) shown on May 24, 2024, centered an episode around weight-loss drugs (by name, Ozempic), not Wegovy.
The skit pointed out that insurance companies do not cover the drugs making them unaffordable.
But the character does find an inexpensive alternative, “Lizzo.”
A line from the episode, “In case studies, 70% of patients on Lizzo no longer cared how much they weighed … Lizzo helps you eat everything you want and keep physical activity to a minimum.”
Educational purposes only, not official trading advice.
Limited offer.
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ETF Summary
(Pivotal means short-term bullish above that level and bearish below)
S&P 500 (SPY) 650 support
Russell 2000 (IWM) 235 close support
Dow (DIA) 455 support
Nasdaq (QQQ) 580 support
Regional banks (KRE) 64 key to hold
Semiconductors (SMH) 300 support
Transportation (IYT) This is our weak link not even over the July range. Watch 73.50 to clear 70.00 to hold
Biotechnology (IBB) 140 pivotal
Retail (XRT) 86 support
Bitcoin (BTCUSD) 114k support
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