Did the Bear Market Rally Call It Quits Today?

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Goodbye, Ruby Tuesday-The Rolling Stones

Sung to the tune of the chorus:

Hello, Super Tuesday.
How will stocks react to you?
Marco, Trump, Bernie and Clinton
How we supposed to trade you?

And that my friends, pretty much sums up the indecisive and defensive action of the market as this week begins.

Modern Family?

Monday, the early part of the day felt like a tug of war between our Patriarch and Matriarch, Russell 2000 and Retail and the rest of the offspring.

While IWM gallantly tried to rally beyond the 50 DMA at 103.85, ultimately, it retreated although still managed to close better than the rest of the indices.

XRT continues to put up the good fight as the new Alpha Monkey of the market, holding onto to its recent gains above the 100 DMA at 43.20.

Commodities on the other hand, particularly Gold and the Gold miners, remained strong. Over the weekend I wrote, “GLD as long as it holds 115, move up intact. Back over 118, new leg up.”

With a low Relative Strength and a continuing base of incredulous speculators who still live in 2015, I see no reason why Gold (GLD) cannot continue to 120 and beyond.

Is that the kiss of death though, for equities?

Oil also had an impressive session, all things considered. Ultimately USO needs to clear 9.90 to confirm a solid base. For now, though, the lows are getting higher as the upward momentum gains traction.

Concerning the tug of war between IWM, XRT and the other Family Members, by the end of the day the rest of the kin closed red.

Transportation (Trannies) IYT, could have possibly put in a 60+ day reversal pattern meaning, a break now below 130 then 128 would create issues elsewhere.

Semiconductors (SMH), show promise as long as they hold 50.00. Biotechnology (IBB) and Regional Banks (KRE), a concern for the market last week, never really caught on to the early enthusiasm of their brethren on Monday.

In fact, IBB under 255 and KRE under 35.81 should not give the rest of the clan much confidence.

So as far as the recent rally goes, back to Jagger and Richards…

“She would never say where she came from
Yesterday don't matter if it's gone
While the sun is bright
Or in the darkest night
No one knows, she comes and goes”

S&P 500 (SPY) As I felt 195 is an important level, it closed below. 193 minor support with 190 next best level. If can recapture 195 should go higher.

Russell 2000 (IWM) 99-100 is the best underlying support. If can clear and close over 103.85 rally continues

Dow (DIA) Back to an unconfirmed bearish phase. 164 area support then 160.

Nasdaq (QQQ) Cannot say it failed the 50 DMA. Just has not cleared it. Also, did not close over 103.50 this month which would have kept it above the 23-month MA. Weak prognosis for now

Volatility Index (VIX) Next time this gets above 26.00 fasten your seatbelts

XLF (Financials) Still working an island bottom so that’s this sector’s best hope. Has to hold 20.00.

KRE (Regional Banks) 35.81 pivotal

SMH (Semiconductors) 50.00 pivotal

IYT (Transportation) Would feel a lot better if it can fill the gap to 134.23. If not, has to hold 130 then 128

IBB (Biotechnology) Speculative money aside, this, in contrast to the rest of the family, looks like it could go much lower

XRT (Retail) Good news-closed green and worked off overbought conditions. Bad news, possible bearish reversal pattern although volume really light

GLD (Gold Trust) Over 118 so if holds very bullish still

GDX (Gold Miners) Near recent highs and not overbought. Looks higher

USO (US Oil Fund) A close over 9.35 would be the best close in a month. Support at 8.50

UNG (US NatGas Fund) Can a commodity go to zero??

TAN (Guggenheim Solar Energy) Still aside on this although if fills the gap to 23.88, I would look to buy the next dip

TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasuries) Held 130 which means over 131 back to a rally