January 11, 2016
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
Waking up to the news of David Bowie’s death saddened us all. It also served as a somber reminder that life is truly ephemeral.
Perhaps fortuitous and certainly in context to the end of a life, I spent the day today babysitting our 15-month old grand baby, a life just beginning filled with the wonder of exploring everything. A door knob opens the door to the laundry room. How cool!
Experiencing the range of emotions in one day from losing a musician I adored while caring for a baby I love, I was only able to look in on the market periodically throughout the day. For one, that added perspective and secondly, allowed me to stick to the plan I laid out over the weekend.
From Sunday's daily. "IWM literally landed right on the 200-week MA at 105. If you regard this as an area rather than an absolute number, IWM has to hold here and work its way back up to 110 this coming week to survive. Otherwise, I would expect IWM to work its way down to 90.-91.00 level over time."
Furthermore, I retweeted instructions that before you think you feel a pulse, make sure 2 of the 4 indices closed above R1, the first floor trader resistance points, on a 30-minute closing basis.
Hasn't happened yet.
Moreover, in the search for instruments in positive phases I wrote,
"After last week’s market demise, I decided to take a quick inventory of the 6 phases...Not to depress you, some of the positive phases I see are in ultrashorts that are now in Recovery or Accumulation Phases. That’s information however.”
Not all of us like to be short. Psychologically that's like betting against the country. The key is to know your own mindset for trading and then, keep as passionless as possible before hitting the buy button to go long.
As far as going short, since the market has already tanked 6-7% right now that it’s a bit tough to do. For me, responsible to subscribers and other people's money, I could not reconcile the risk/reward of going short at this late date.
Was this the flush?
So now we wait. I know what I am watching for. I've tried my best to share those mega trend possibilities with you.
In some bizarro way, as equities get cheaper, we become more confident that when we do buy, the risk will be nominal. We are comparing that to the potential payoff for our patience.
“Ch-ch-ch-ch-changes
(Turn and face the strange)
Ch-ch-changes
Don't want to be a richer man
Ch-ch-ch-ch-changes
(Turn and face the strange)
Ch-ch-changes
Just gonna have to be a different man
Time may change me
But I can't trace time”
David Bowie R.I.P
S&P 500 (SPY) Touched down on support at the 190 level before closing near the highs. Not much room left before we would see the august lows.
Russell 2000 (IWM) Broke and closed under the August lows. Hopefully the oversold conditions will take hold and this will bounce.
Dow (DIA) Held price action support at 162.00, with more support at 160.00. Still has room to the August lows
Nasdaq (QQQ) Held 104 on a closing basis, if that breaks look to 100.00 for support.
Volatility Index (VIX) New 60+ day high and closed on the lows for a possible reversal pattern if confirms tomorrow.
XLF (Financials) Tested the support at 22 but held on a closing basis.
KRE (Regional Banks) Not much support until the August lows, maybe the oversold condition will provide some.
SMH (Semiconductors) Still oversold on all timeframes. 48.00 support and 52 overhead resistance
IYT (Transportation) Looking very heavy here. Needs to hold around 120 which has some support on price action on a monthly chart.
IBB (Biotechnology) Needs to continue to hold the August low at 284.16.
XRT (Retail) 40.45 the 200-week moving average and 40.29 the Oct. 2014 low to hold.
IYR (Real Estate) Inside day here just under the 100 DMA, with support at 72.61.
ITB (US Home Construction) If fails to hold 24.00 the the last support is the August low at 23.50.
GLD (Gold Trust) Closed last week’s gap, 103.50 area is support.
SLV (Silver) Still trading in a range between 13.00 and the 50 DMA which is currently at 13.61.
GDX (Gold Miners) Back in a bear phase if confirms tomorrow.
USO (US Oil Fund) Extinct for real…
UNG (US NatGas Fund) Needs to hold the 50 DMA at 8.70.
TAN (Guggenheim Solar Energy) Keeping an eye here for a possible bounce from 26.00.
TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasuries) 124 major resistance to clear-I am really becoming interested in the TBTs-like the way they are basing and with the market under pressure, how well they have held up.
UUP (Dollar Bull) Cleared the 50 DMA for an unconfirmed bullish phase.
Every day you'll be prepared to trade with: