December 14, 2011
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
FOMC and Market Disappointment
Today reminds me of an anxious child (the market) anticipating some great big surprise (From the FED) and when it doesn't happen (No Policy Change), throwing a bit of a tantrum (The Selloff). But, does that child remember the tantrum the next day? Or do only the parents (Traders)?
SPY: A couple of good things-held the upward sloping 50 Day moving average and monthly and kept the island bottom intact. A couple of not so good things-3rd Distribution Day in volume and a failure at the weekly moving average so far. Back through 125 encouraging, under today's low not so much.
QQQ: Not a pretty bear candle nor dive beneath the moving averages. But we look for 2 closes under the 50 DMA for confirmed phase change. That will be if cannot get back above 56.00. A break of 55.30 should bring in more sellers.
IWM: I consistently write and look to the midcaps which of course never came close to clearing the 200 DMA. 70.85 is the top price of that island bottom and a point to watch. Back over 73.78 and market could still surprise.
ETFs:
GLD Now oversold at the 200 DMA with a big spike in volume.
XRT (Retail) 51.00 the 200 DMA revisited.
SMH (Semiconductors) First to fill gap from 11/30. Would not dismiss a return over 30.00, but once an island bottom is negated, takes wind out of the sails therefore would not dismiss more downside with next support 28.50.
XLF (Financials) Damage done, but island bottom still in place. And back over 12.78 encouraging.
XLE (Energy) Trying hard to hold the 50 DMA but would not fight the trend if breaks today' low.
Every day you'll be prepared to trade with:
