Hickory, Dickory, Dock; The Market Runs Up the Clock

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As Resilient as Seasoned Hickory

Wood takes from six months to a year to season. Hickory is hard and dense, resistant to shock. The wood yields nuts, which might be edible in some species. The bark of some hickory trees produce syrup.

Much of the same is true for the market which came back to life after last week’s decline. The bulls might be dense, they may be yielding nuts, they are seemingly resistant to shock! And, they are surely making syrup to pour on the seasoned rally which began in February.

Even NASDAQ, after taking some real blows last week, came back today to close over the 100 daily moving average. Although QQQs are in a bearish phase, they are now a short hop away from retaking 108. That would put NASDAQ and the rest of the market in much better shape.

Perhaps the best indicator that the bulls have kept control comes from the Russell 2000. Last week, in spite of the intraday move below the 200 DMA, it ended the week defending it. Now, over 113.60 IWM will look steady.

Retail (XRT) held onto 44.00. That’s a number you can use this week as the perfect risk point to hold. If it fails there, I would view that as a sign for caution. Over 44.90 and we are back in a bullish phase if holds.

You can also watch Transportation (IYT). In the Granny and Tranny show, if XRT breaks 44 and IYT breaks 140, I would be significantly cautious. On the other hand, a move back over 145 then 148 in IYT would be hard to argue with.

Regional Banks (KRE) returned over the 200 DMA at 40.50. There’s your point to watch for a confirmation.

Semiconductors (SMH) had an inside day (inside the trading range from last Friday.) It is holding the 200 DMA and needs to get back over 54.00 to rejoin the others.

Biotechnology (IBB) remains the deciduous variety of our hickory tree market. It could shed leaves if fails 267. It could also bud flowers if we see another push over 280.

Hickory is used for smoking “heavier” meats like beef and pork. Too much hickory smoke though, can cause your meat to have a bitter flavor.

Watch the Modern Family for best clues. The parameters above should help you clearly see the forest from the hickory trees.

I embark on a vacation May 3rd leaving you all in the very adept care of Geoff Bysshe, co-founder and president of MarketGauge.

I return on May 16^th. To see the commentary on Twitter, please follow @marketgauge

I send my very best to all of you!

S&P 500 (SPY) 207 big support then 205, 202 with 200 game changer. Back over 209 better

Russell 2000 (IWM) 111.90-112 must continue to hold. A close this week over 114 is strong

Dow (DIA) 178 support then 174. 181.42 recent high

Nasdaq (QQQ) 105 support. 108 pivotal

XLF (Financials) 23.21 the 200 DMA. Also, it is holding over the 50-week MA

KRE (Regional Banks) Weekly chart resistance at 41.05 to clear by Friday

SMH (Semiconductors) 54 pivotal. 52.80 key weekly support. 52.05 the 200 DMA

IYT (Transportation) Needs to clear 148 hold 140

XRT (Retail) 45.40 the weekly MA to close above this week and 44.00 support to hold

IYR (Real Estate) Held where it needed to and looks pretty good. I like this chart a lot more now

GLD (Gold Trust) 121 is support and where it broke out of the channel from

SLV (Silver) May be a reversal. Like to see this hold 16

GDX (Gold Miners) A low volume rest and profit taking

USO (US Oil Fund) 11.42 the 2016 high way back in January. Has to hold 10.00.

XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) After a bit of correction, probably a buy opp against 33.10

TAN (Guggenheim Solar Energy) Held the 50 DMA which is a good sign.

TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasuries) I like TBTs now over 38.00

UUP (Dollar Bull) Its back in 2014 territory. With 23.48 good support