August 13, 2015
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
“I have an existential map. It has ‘You are Here’ written all over it. Steven Wright.
There are days when you just have to sit back and think about the mixed signals. As a trader and a writer, reflection has both positive and negative implications.
For the market, if we focus on the Dow and its daunting Death Cross, watching the comeback from the lows can play with your head. Clearly most investors are asking, should these rallies be sold? Is the sharp reversal a bottom to be bought? How important are moving averages anyway?
As a writer, I not only ask myself these very same questions, but also how to give you viable answers each day in the most entertaining fashion my brain can concoct.
Today, the word Existentialism came up.
Existentialism emphasizes that isolation of our human experience in a hostile and indifferent universe as unique. It regards our existence as unexplainable and our choices we make and their consequences, solely our own.
Does that describe your trading?
As for the market, which clearly is a sometimes hostile and always indifferent universe unconcerned about what we think, let’s see if logic prevails over the inexplicable.
Interest Rates firmed again making the argument that the FED can still raise rates in September. Commodities prices fell.
The Dow tried, but could not hold above the July 6-month Calendar Range Low.
The Russell 2000s failed to close over 120.00, a pivotal area. Semiconductors marginally held 51.00 with an inside day. If Friday can bring Semis back to life, great. If not, lower prices seem inevitable.
NASDAQ, on the other hand, might still spring to action as it remains in a bullish phase.
If these mixed signals in the market are giving you Existential angst, remember the words of Woody Allen “I took a test in Existentialism. I left all the answers blank and got 100.”
S&P 500 (SPY) 207.66 the 200 DMA pivotal.
Russell 2000 (IWM) 120 pivotal and if cannot clear it, most likely means still has to head south
Dow (DIA) 174.44 pivotal. I do still think we could see a rally, but that should be the one to short.
Nasdaq (QQQ) 111-109 a good range to watch break one way or the other
XLF (Financials) Back to unconfirmed bullish-watch rates
KRE (Regional Banks) Inside day. 42.50-43.30 a good range to watch
SMH (Semiconductors) Inside day right on 51.00
IYT (Transportation) Looks like it will waffle around for a while til it either breaks 144 or clears 150.00
IBB (Biotechnology) This looks vulnerable to me
XRT (Retail) 96.93 the 200 DMA to clear and 96.00 a good place to hold
IYR (Real Estate) Bottoming out with some choppy intraday moves
XHB (US HomeBuilders) New 2015 highs
GLD (Gold Trust) Maybe its bottomed, but if rates do firm, wonder if this is where one should have money?
SLV (Silver) Confirmed phase change to recovery, which is something
GDX (Gold Miners) Now that it filled a gap, buying dips with risk to around 13.90 makes sense
USO (US Oil Fund) Not done yet but that won’t last forever
OIH (Oil Services) Looks like its bottoming here
XLE (Energy) Inside day with support at 68.60
UNG (US NatGas Fund) Commodities are really difficult to figure-when they appear to be bottoming, a report sends it into a tizzy
TAN (Guggenheim Solar Energy) Still like it if it holds Thursday’s low and clears 34.00
TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasuries) Confirmed deterioration to a recovery phase.
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