December 8, 2015
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
At least one member of the Modern Family took the 2 Haramis (2 inside days) seriously. Big Bro Biotechnology.
Call it another injection of B-12 or the reason IBB has Big Bro status to begin with; nevertheless, it does seem that his strength prevented the rest of the market from free falling and even sparked some fire in other members, especially Granny Retail (XRT).
Not entirely out the woods, though, IBB must clear 335 and hold 320 to really help the sewage burn turn into holiday lights.
One must also look at the visiting relatives of the Family, the utterly senile Aunt Bethany from Russia (RSX) and Uncle Eddie (USO-oil).
USO made yet another new low with a 5th day of a lot better than the average daily volume.
The Russia ETF does not have anywhere near the same volume levels, but is getting really close to the October low 15.04, the point from where a sizeable rally to almost 18.00 began. At that time, we began an affair with Russia as the “thug” we love when he’s on our side. For a few weeks anyway, until Turkey shot an arrow through our hearts.
Speaking of lights and love, how is the massive volume in the Solar ETF playing out?
After TAN’s (the ETF for Solar Energy) volume exploded to the highest weekly volume since June of 2014. Monday TAN had another round of huge volume and 2 Harami days. Tuesday, volume did not explode, but it did post greater than the average daily.
Technically, as long as TAN holds November lows, a move over 29.00 would be a great confirmation of a bottom in place for 2016.
Elsewhere, Granddad’s Russell 2000s (IWM) tested and marginally closed under the 50 DMA. Lots of underlying support on the daily chart. Doubtful we will see anything lower than 112. Over 116 should bring in new buyers.
Granny Retail (XRT) showed promise, but that’s not exactly a reason to commit to her just yet.
Our Prodigal Son (KRE), has the 200 DMA at 42.50 to defend. 44.00 or above keeps it looking sparky.
Trannies (IYT) are a sour reminder to not forget about the Dow Theory. This sector gives bulls a reason to shudder. Semiconductors (SMH) could help a lot if they can get back over 56.15.
With continued strength in NASDAQ and its few stellar names like Amazon, Google, Netflix and Facebook, the Modern Family in comparison, looks a lot like Tiny Tim in A Christmas Carol.
Tiny Tim humbly awaited to receive some scraps from Scrooge on Christmas day, always believing that underneath the “bah, humbug”, Scrooge was a good man.
S&P 500 (SPY) 206.60 held (the 200 DMA). Almost seems though, it needs to get back to 202 level to see real buyers again
Dow (DIA) Doji day right on the 200 DMA. Interesting
Nasdaq (QQQ) Over 115.47 would be special. Otherwise, support at 12 and better at 110.86 the 50 DMA
XLF (Financials) 23.80 the big underlying support with 24.55 the place to get back over
KRE (Regional Banks) Like this against 42.50 if you believe
SMH (Semiconductors) 56.15 pivotal 54.20 big support
IYT (Transportation) Sad day but did hold September lows so far
XRT (Retail) Over 45.08 will help alot
IYR (Real Estate) Needs to clear the 200 DMA at 74.98
ITB (US Home Construction) Held where it needed to and if get back over 28.50 good
GLD (Gold Trust) Held 102.50 level for 2 days. Over 104 looks better
USO (US Oil Fund) Blow off type volume on this dump
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) New low for 2015 and good pop thereafter. 32.00 should hold if good
TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasuries) Inside dat under the 200 and 50 DMAs.
EWG (Germany) Doesn’t look too bad as it tries to hold on to the 50 DMA
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